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Stochastic multitype SIR epidemics among a population partitioned into households. (English) Zbl 0978.92025

Summary: We consider a stochastic model for the spread of an SIR (susceptible \(\to\) infective \(\to\) removed) epidemic among a closed, finite population that contains several types of individuals and is partitioned into households. The infection rate between two individuals depends on the types of the transmitting and receiving individuals and also on whether the infection is local (i.e., within a household) or global (i.e., between households). The exact distribution of the final outcome of the epidemic is outlined. A branching process approximation for the early stages of the epidemic is described and made fully rigorous, by considering a sequence of epidemics in which the number of households tends to infinity and using a coupling argument. This leads to a threshold theorem for the epidemic model. A central limit theorem for the final outcome of epidemics which take off is derived, by exploiting an embedding representation.

MSC:

92D30 Epidemiology
60J80 Branching processes (Galton-Watson, birth-and-death, etc.)
60F99 Limit theorems in probability theory
60K99 Special processes
60J85 Applications of branching processes
60F05 Central limit and other weak theorems
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