Numerical-statistical study of the prognostic efficiency of the SEIR model. (English) Zbl 1489.92164
To study COVID-19 epidemic in Novosibirsk, a comparative analysis of the differential and the corresponding stochastic Poisson SEIR-models is proposed in this paper. The average numbers of identified sick patients is less (beginning from April 7, 2020) than the corresponding differential values by the quantity that does not differ statistically from. The results shown that the influence of introduction of the incubation period from infection to appearance of symptoms on the prognosis as this was formulated above in item 3 of the formulation of the problem. It was shown that this influence is essential and may improve the forecast.
Reviewer: Ran Zhang (Nanjing)
MSC:
| 92D30 | Epidemiology |
| 65C05 | Monte Carlo methods |
| 62P10 | Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis |
| 60G55 | Point processes (e.g., Poisson, Cox, Hawkes processes) |
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