×

Introduction to statistical inference for infectious diseases. (Introduction à l’inférence statistique pour les maladies infectieuses.) (English. French summary) Zbl 1357.92004

Summary: In this paper, we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then, we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number \(R_0\) and vaccination coverage vc assuming different types of data from an outbreak such as final outbreak details and temporal data or observations from an ongoing outbreak. Both individual heterogeneities and heterogeneous mixing are discussed. We also provide an overview of statistical methods to perform parameter estimation for other stochastic epidemic models. In the last section we describe the problem of early outbreak detection in infectious disease surveillance and statistical models used for this purpose.

MSC:

92B15 General biostatistics
62P10 Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis
92D30 Epidemiology
62M10 Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)