Summary: A statistical method for simulating a boundary layer transition flow is proposed as based on experimental data on the kinematics and dynamics of turbulent spots (Emmons spots) on a flat plate placed in an incompressible fluid. The method determines intermittency with allowance for overlapping spots, which makes it possible to determine the forces on the plate surface and the flow field near the transition region if the mean streamwise velocity field in a developed turbulent boundary layer is known as a function of the Reynolds number. In contrast to multiparameter transition models, this approach avoids the use of nonphysical parameter values.