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Une méthode hiérarchique, auto-régulée, de simulation d’événements extrêmement rares. (A hierarchical, self-regulated method for very rare events). (French. Abridged English version) Zbl 0768.65095

Summary: A method for accelerating the simulation of very rare events is presented. It consists in a MULTI-LEVEL use of the well-known importance sampling. A self-regulating algorithm for the choice of the intermediate states is proposed. A comparison is then performed between the results of such a simulation and some analytical results about the variances and the Markov matrices.

MSC:

65C99 Probabilistic methods, stochastic differential equations
62D05 Sampling theory, sample surveys