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Cluster-based extension of the generalized Poisson loss dynamics and consistency with single names. (English) Zbl 1291.91243

Summary: We extend the common Poisson shock framework reviewed for example in [F. Lindskog and A. J. McNeil, Astin Bull. 33, No. 2, 209–238 (2003; Zbl 1087.91030)] to a formulation avoiding repeated defaults, thus obtaining a model that can account consistently for single name default dynamics, cluster default dynamics and default counting process. This approach allows one to introduce significant dynamics, improving on the standard “bottom-up” approaches, and to achieve true consistency with single names, improving on most “top-down” loss models. Furthermore, the resulting GPCL model has important links with the previous GPL dynamical loss model (D. Brigo, A. Pallavicini and R. Torresetti, 2007), which we point out. Model extensions allowing for more articulated spread and recovery dynamics are hinted at. Calibration to both DJi-TRAXX and CDX index and tranche data across attachments and maturities shows that the GPCL model has the same calibration power as the GPL model while allowing for consistency with single names.

MSC:

91G70 Statistical methods; risk measures
91G40 Credit risk
62P05 Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics
62N05 Reliability and life testing

Citations:

Zbl 1087.91030
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] Bielecki T., Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging (2007)
[2] Brigo D., Risk Magazine
[3] Golub H., Matrix Computation (1983)
[4] DOI: 10.2143/AST.32.2.1030 · Zbl 1098.91540 · doi:10.2143/AST.32.2.1030
[5] DOI: 10.2143/AST.33.2.503691 · Zbl 1087.91030 · doi:10.2143/AST.33.2.503691
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