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Structural hidden Markov models based on stochastic context-free grammars. (English) Zbl 1172.93423

Summary: We propose a novel paradigm that we named “Structural Hidden Markov Model” (SHMM). It extends traditional Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) by considering observations as strings derived by a probabilistic context-free grammar. These observations are related in the sense they all contribute to produce a particular structure. SHMMs overcome the limit of state conditional independence of the observations in HMMs. Thus they are capable to cope with structural time series data. We have applied SHMM to data mine customers’ preferences for automotive designs. A 5-fold cross-validation has shown a 9% increase of SHMM accuracy over HMM.

MSC:

93E35 Stochastic learning and adaptive control
60J05 Discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces
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