×

A floating period based coal price prediction model. (Chinese. English summary) Zbl 1488.62208

Summary: Coal is the basic raw material of energy and chemical industry in China. The accurate prediction of coal price is of great significance for industrial development. In this paper, the principal component analysis method is used to dynamically select the factors that influence the coal price. Then, a dynamic coal price prediction model is formulated based on a floating period adjustment mechanism for optimizing the prediction results. Finally, the proposed model and several existing prediction models are simultaneously applied by the real coal prices. The corresponding case study results show that the proposed method outperforms existing prediction methods on the prediction accuracy.

MSC:

62P20 Applications of statistics to economics
62H25 Factor analysis and principal components; correspondence analysis
62M20 Inference from stochastic processes and prediction
91B74 Economic models of real-world systems (e.g., electricity markets, etc.)