Entropy of plagues: A measure for assessing the loss of social cohesion due to epidemics. (English) Zbl 0795.92033
We have asked the question what kind of illumination might be given to a series of historical events through the application of operations research techniques. The question is addressed by means of a model. In that model we compare the evidence for the collapse of civil authority during selected plagues of the 14th–17th century against the value for a casualty based entropy. The entropy is computed from time series of mortality data taken from the historical record of the selected period. The conjecture is advanced that mortality based entropy calculations reveal the impact of the plague mortality on societal structure.
MSC:
| 91D99 | Mathematical sociology (including anthropology) |
| 91F10 | History, political science |
| 01A99 | History of mathematics and mathematicians |
Keywords:
epidemics; medical history; historical plagues in Europe; historical measures; collapse of civil authority; casualty based entropy; time series of mortality data; mortality based entropy calculations; plague mortality; societal structureReferences:
| [1] | Alberola, J. Pla, Hambre, peste y guerra: Los embates de la muerte en el condadao de Concentaina (1609-1709), Revista de Historia Moderna, Annales de la Universdad de Alicante, 5, 67ff (1985), (in Spanish). Source of mixed data on war and plague. For comparative purposes, as all of our cases presented were for plague alone |
| [2] | Allen, P., Towards a new science of complex systems, (The Science and Praxis of Complexity (1985), United Nations, University Press: United Nations, University Press Tokyo), 268-297, A good, general introduction to society as a complex system |
| [3] | Anonymous, The Plague Reconsidered. A new Look at its Origins and Effects in 16th and 17th Century England, (A collection of essays and research papers on aspects of epidemics during the indicated years. Used for comparison of English plagues in various localities (1977)) |
| [4] | Berthe, M., (Famines et Epidemies dans les Campagnes Navarraises à la Fin du Moyen Age: Tome I & II (1984), SFIED: SFIED Paris), (in French). The major source of data on the total collapse in the region of Navarre in Spain, and the subsequent reduction of an urban way of life to rustic one |
| [5] | Carvalho-Rodrigues, F., A proposed entropy measure for assessing combat degradation, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 40, 8, 789-793 (1989) |
| [6] | Carvalho-Rodrigues, F., A proposed cohesion measure for assessing complex systems, (Working Paper (1992), LNETI: LNETI Lisbon, Portugal), (to appear) · Zbl 0795.92033 |
| [7] | Carvalho-Rodrigues, F.; Dockery, J.; Woodcock, A. E.R., Entropy in combat data, (Proceedings of the 1991 Joint Directors of Laboratories Command and Control Research Symposium. Proceedings of the 1991 Joint Directors of Laboratories Command and Control Research Symposium, Held at National Defense University, Washington, DC (1991), Saic: Saic McLean, VA, USA) |
| [8] | Coombs, R.; Saviotti, P.; Walsh, V., Economic Analysis and Technology Change, ((1987), Rowmans: Rowmans Littlefield, NJ), 123 |
| [9] | Dupaquier, J., L’Analyse statistique des crises de mortalité, (Charbonneare, H.; Larise, A., Les Grandes Mortalités: Étude Méthodologique des Crises Demographiques du Passé. Les Grandes Mortalités: Étude Méthodologique des Crises Demographiques du Passé, Union International pour l’Étude Scientifique de le Pop, Liége (1979)), (in French) |
| [10] | Hollinsworth, T. H., Historical Demography (1969), Cambridge University Press: Cambridge University Press London |
| [11] | Lisbon, Portugal: Muncipal records of the year 1569, Provimentos da Saude-Folios 120 (July 12), 126 (August 12), 127 (August 28), and 130 (August 30); Lisbon, Portugal: Muncipal records of the year 1569, Provimentos da Saude-Folios 120 (July 12), 126 (August 12), 127 (August 28), and 130 (August 30) |
| [12] | Marchetti, C., Society as a learning system: Discovery, inventions, and innovation cycles revisited, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 18, 267-282 (1980) |
| [13] | Marchetti, C., Swings, cycles and global economy, New Scientist, 2, 12-15 (1985), May |
| [14] | Del Panta, L., Le Epidemie Nella Storia Demografica Italiana (Secoli XIV-XIX), ((1986), Loescher Editore: Loescher Editore Turin), (in Italian) |
| [15] | Rodrigues, T., Para o Estudo das Pestes e Epidemia na Lisboa Quinhentista, ((1986), Center for the study of history and ethnology: Center for the study of history and ethnology Ferreira do Zezere, Lisbon), (in Portugese) |
| [16] | Rodrigues, T., Crises de Mortalidade em Lisboa Seculos XVI e XVII (1990), Livros Horizonte: Livros Horizonte Lisbon, (in Portuguese) |
| [17] | Slack, P., The impact of PLAGUE in Tudor and Stuart England (1985), Routledge & Kegan Paul: Routledge & Kegan Paul London |
| [18] | Wicken, J. S., Thermodynamics, evolution, and emergence: Ingredients for a new synthesis, (Weber, B. H.; etal., Entropy, Information, and Evolution (1988), MIT Press: MIT Press Cambridge MA) |
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.
