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When probability trees don’t work. (English) Zbl 1345.97011

Summary: Tree diagrams arise naturally in courses on probability at high school or university, even at an elementary level. Often they are used to depict outcomes and associated probabilities from a sequence of games. A subtle issue is whether or not the Markov condition holds in the sequence of games. We present two examples that illustrate the importance of this issue. Suggestions as to how these examples may be used in a classroom are offered.

MSC:

97K50 Probability theory (educational aspects)
97K60 Distributions and stochastic processes (educational aspects)
60C05 Combinatorial probability
91A05 2-person games
91A60 Probabilistic games; gambling
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