×

Approximate factor models with weaker loadings. (English) Zbl 07704519

Summary: Pervasive cross-section dependence is increasingly recognized as a characteristic of economic data and the approximate factor model provides a useful framework for analysis. Assuming a strong factor structure where \(\boldsymbol{\Lambda}^{0'}\boldsymbol{\Lambda}^0/N^\alpha\) is positive definite in the limit when \(\alpha=1\), early work established convergence of the principal component estimates of the factors and loadings up to a rotation matrix. This paper shows that the estimates are still consistent and asymptotically normal when \(\alpha\in(0,1]\) albeit at slower rates and under additional assumptions on the sample size. The results hold whether \(\alpha\) is constant or varies across factor loadings. The framework developed for heterogeneous loadings and the simplified proofs that can be also used in strong factor analysis are of independent interest.

MSC:

62-XX Statistics
91-XX Game theory, economics, finance, and other social and behavioral sciences

References:

[1] Ahn, S.; Horenstein, R., Eigenvalue ratio test for the number of factors, Econometrica, 81, 1203, 3-1227 (2013) · Zbl 1274.62403
[2] Anderson, T. W.; Rubin, H., Statistical inference in factor analysis, (Neyman, J., Proceedings of the Third Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Vol. V (1956), University of California Press: University of California Press Berkeley), 114-150 · Zbl 0070.14703
[3] Bai, J., Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions, Econometrica, 71, 1, 135-172 (2003) · Zbl 1136.62354
[4] Bai, J.; Ng, S., Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models, Econometrica, 70, 1, 191-221 (2002) · Zbl 1103.91399
[5] Bai, J.; Ng, S., Confidence intervals for diffusion index forecasts and inference with factor-augmented regressions, Econometrica, 74, 1133, 4-1150 (2006) · Zbl 1152.91721
[6] Bai, J.; Ng, S., Principal components estimation and identification of the factors, J. Econometrics, 176, 18-29 (2013) · Zbl 1284.62350
[7] Bai, J.; Ng, S., Rank regularized estimation of approximate factor models, J. Econometrics, 212, 1, 78-96 (2019) · Zbl 1452.62405
[8] Baily, N.; Kapetanios, G.; Pesaran, M. H., Exponent of cross-section dependence: Estimation and inference, J. Appl. Econometrics, 31, 6, 929-960 (2016)
[9] ten Berge, J.; Kiers, H., A numerical approach to the exact and the approximate minimum rank of a covariance matrix, Psychometrika, 56, 309-315 (1991) · Zbl 0850.62462
[10] Chamberlain, G.; Rothschild, M., Arbitrage, factor structure and mean-variance analysis in large asset markets, Econometrica, 51, 1281-2304 (1983) · Zbl 0523.90017
[11] Chao, J. C.; Swanson, N. R., Consistent Estimation, Variable Selection, and Forecasting in Factor-Augmented VAR Models (2022), mimeo, Rutgers University
[12] Chao, J. C.; Swanson, N. R., Selecting the Relevant Variables for Factor Estimation in Factor-Augmented VAR Models (2022), mimeo, Rutgers University
[13] DeMol, C.; Giannone, D.; Reichlin, L., Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?, J. Ecomometrics, 146, 318-328 (2008) · Zbl 1429.62659
[14] Eckart, C.; Young, G., The approximation of one matrix by another of lower rank, Psychometrika, 1, 211-8 (1936) · JFM 62.1075.02
[15] Forni, M.; Hallin, M.; Lippi, M.; Reichlin, L., The generalized dynamic factor model: Identification and estimation, Rev. Econ. Stat., 82, 4, 540-554 (2000)
[16] Freyaldenhoven, S., Factor models with local factors: Determining the number of relevant factors, J. Econometrics, 229, 1, 80-102 (2022) · Zbl 07538791
[17] Lettau, M.; Pelger, M., Estimating latent asset pricing factors, J. Econometrics, 218, 1, 1-31 (2020) · Zbl 1456.62252
[18] Moon, R.; Weidner, M., Dynamic linear panel regression models with interactive fixed effects, Econom. Theory, 33, 158-195 (2017) · Zbl 1441.62816
[19] Onatski, A., Determining the number of factors from empirical distribution of eigenvalues, Rev. Econ. Stat., 92, 1004, 4-1016 (2010)
[20] Onatski, A., Asymptotics of the principal components estimator of large factor models with weakly influential factors, J. Econometrics, 168, 244-258 (2012), manuscript under revision · Zbl 1443.62497
[21] Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., 1998. Diffusion Indexes. NBER Working Paper 6702.
[22] Stock, J. H.; Watson, M. W., Forecasting using principle components from a large number of predictors, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 97, 460, 1167-1179 (2002) · Zbl 1041.62081
[23] Uematsu, Y.; Yamagata, T., Inference in sparsity-induced weak factor models, J. Bus. Econom. Statist. (2021), forthcoming
[24] Uematsu, Y.; Yamagata, T., Estimation of Sparsity Induced Weak Factor Models. Estimation of Sparsity Induced Weak Factor Models, J. Bus. Econom. Statist., 41, 1, 213-227 (2023) · Zbl 1542.62146
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.