Could Sara become a hurricane that hits Florida? Some forecasts say yes
A new storm could hit Florida by the middle of next week as a Category 3 hurricane, the latest punch in a relentless Atlantic hurricane season that's claimed at least 326 lives and caused $120 billion in damage.
Some forecast models say the storm, to be named Sara, will hit wind speeds of more than 111 mph and bring catastrophic flooding and storm watches to Central America by this weekend. The Gulf Coast has already had five hurricane landfalls this hurricane season.
National Hurricane Center forecasters say the storm is now "Potential Tropical Cyclone 18," a tropical wave moving westward in the Caribbean. The system is forecast to become Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday.
The hurricane center said at 4 p.m. Wednesday that the system was centered about 460 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras. The government of Honduras has issued a hurricane watch and Nicaragua has issued a tropical storm watch.
The storm is expected to drop up to 30 inches of rain over northern Honduras, the hurricane center said.
Some of the computer models indicate the Sara could become a major hurricane threatening the Florida coast, although it's still "too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring the Gulf of Mexico, Florida and Cuba," the center stated in the 4 p.m. update.
The center's initial forecast track puts a tropical storm near the coast of Honduras on Friday, where it could linger for a couple of days as a tropical storm then make a landfall in Belize on Monday. Heavy rains are forecast in Jamaica over the next day or so, and in Central America through early next week.
AccuWeather, a private weather service, said in a Wednesday afternoon forecast that it expects the storm to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane over the weekend.
“AccuWeather hurricane experts are increasingly concerned about the potential for a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster across parts of Central America, especially near steep terrain across parts of Honduras and Nicaragua,” Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter stated in the forecast. “These communities are especially vulnerable to flooding, as tragically seen in major flooding disasters in this area in modern times, including Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which tragically claimed over 11,000 lives, and devastating flooding from Hurricane Eta and Iota in 2020.”
The storm's interaction with Central America and other surrounding weather patterns will determine the system's ultimate intensity and destination. Because the system is still forming, without a well-defined center, the average forecast track uncertainty is larger than normal, the center stated.
More: Storm tracker: System in the Caribbean could become Hurricane Sara by next week
The storm could take advantage of “some unusually conducive late-season conditions” to strengthen into the early part of next week,” wrote Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist and storm surge expert with WPLG-TV in South Florida, in his daily update on Tuesday.
Water temperatures in the Caribbean are warmer than normal, but temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have been at a record high this week, according to ocean heat content graphs kept by Brian McNoldy, a senior research scientist at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School. Warm water helps fuel hurricanes.
Lowry and other meteorologists say two key issues will determine whether the disturbance could threaten the U.S. By early next week, the system is forecast to begin moving slowly northwestward, but just when it turns could make a difference in both the strength and location of the system.
"If a tropical storm or hurricane forms in the western Caribbean, the track is likely to be heavily influenced by the position of a dome of high pressure along the southern Atlantic coast of the United States," AccuWeather said Tuesday.
For now, the chaotic nature of the model tracks indicates "high uncertainty" in the forecast, Lowry said. If the storm moves over Central America or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the interaction could weaken it. However, he said, if it remains offshore in the Caribbean, chances increase that it grows stronger and is steered into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.
Given the environmental conditions in the region, several models used to forecast potential intensity suggest a potential hurricane could reach Category 3 status, with winds over 111 mph, and one suggests it could reach Category 4 status, according to the website Tropicaltidbits.com, maintained by meteorologist Levi Cowan.
If a sixth hurricane were to make landfall along the Gulf of Mexico, it would tie the record from 1886 for the most landfalls in a season on the U.S. Gulf Coast, McNoldy posted on social media Tuesday. At five so far this season, 2024 is tied with 2005 and 2020 for the second-most Gulf hurricane landfalls on record in one season.
November hurricanes are rather unusual. Only three hurricanes have previously affected the U.S. or made landfall in November, one each in 1861 and 1935, and Hurricane Kate in 1985, according to NOAA records.
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A busy 2024 hurricane season
So far, 2024 is the 11th most active season based on the number of hurricane days and accumulated cyclone energy since meteorologists started observing hurricanes by satellites in 1966, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. The cyclone energy index calculates the total energy of a season by the frequency of storms and the maximum wind speed of each hurricane over its lifespan.
Among the more active seasons are 2005 and 2020, the two years when the hurricane center ran out of its first list of names and turned to a backup list, according to Klotzbach. Seven of the most active seasons have occurred this century.
The 2024 season has pretty closely matched the pre-season predictions of both NOAA and Colorado State University for hurricanes and major hurricanes. Only named storms are lagging below those seasonal outlooks. Although the season started out busy, including a record-breaking Beryl, a lull in August surprised forecasters, but 12 named storms have developed since early September.
Seasonal Outlook issued May 2024 | |||
Named storms | 17 - 25 | 23 | 17 |
Hurricanes | 8 - 13 | 11 | 11 |
Major hurricanes | 4 - 7 | 5 | 5 |
Landfalling hurricanes in 2024
Beryl – Matagorda County, Texas
Debby – Taylor County, Florida, and South Carolina
Francine – Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana
Helene – Taylor County, Florida
Milton – Sarasota County, Florida
Read more about the 2024 season
Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She's written about hurricanes, tornadoes and violent weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tropical storm Sara could form, becoming a hurricane
