Lead-Lag Relationship Between Convertible Bonds and The Stock Markets
A convertible bond is a type of security that can be converted into a predetermined number of shares of the issuer’s common stock at certain times during its life. The paper explores the lead-lag relationship between convertible bonds and the stock markets.
- Utilizing minute-level high-frequency data, the study observed that convertible bonds exhibit a leading role over stocks, evident at both the index and individual stock levels.
- Regression analysis revealed that both the ‘T +0’ rule and wider price limits make substantial contributions to this leading effect of convertible bonds on stocks.
- Following an institutional change implemented after August 1, 2022, which reduced the price limit in the convertible bond market to 20%, the study employed a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to assess its impact.
- Experimental findings from the RDD analysis indicated that this narrower price limit significantly diminishes the leading effect of convertible bonds on the stock market.
It’s worth noting that the authors focused on the Chinese markets. It would be interesting to examine this lead-lag relationship in the US and other developed markets.
Reference: Liwei Jin, Xianghui Yuana, Keji Lu, Shihao Wanga and Zhichao Li, The lead lag relationship between convertible bonds and stocks: a perspective based on trading mechanism, Applied Economics, 2024
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ABSTRACT
Based on minute-level high-frequency data, this paper examines the lead-lag relationship between convertible bonds and the stock market by using the thermal optimal path method. It is found that convertible bonds lead the stock market at both index and individual levels. Regression analysis shows that the unique ‘T + 0’ trading mechanism and wider price limits of convertible bonds significantly contribute to their leading effect. Additional analysis shows that the leading effect is significantly reduced when the price limit of convertible bond market is narrowed. Our findings can potentially help regulators to improve and develop the convertible bond market, and also be of value to investors in developing trading strategies.
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