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LONDON (ICIS)–The overall winner of this year’s ICIS Innovation Awards – BASF, Linde and SABIC’s electrically heated steam cracker furnace – could have a massive impact on overall chemical industry emissions if the technology is widely adopted. World’s first electrically heated steam cracker at demonstration stage Cuts CO2 emissions by up to 95% compared with natural gas-fired crackers Tripartite win shows strength of partnerships Challenges include obtaining sufficient renewable energy, financing for scale up Financial risks can be reduced by converting one furnace at a time In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Michael Reitz, technology manager for BASF and Martin Hofstaetter, process engineer for furnace technology at Linde. Register your interest to enter the 2025 ICIS Innovation Awards. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson's ICIS blogs.

23-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Emerging Asian economies are expected to see strong economic growth subside, partly due to a sustained slowdown in China, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. China’s 2024 growth forecast lowered to 4.8% Downside risks dominate global outlook China property risks may trigger global impact The IMF trimmed its forecast for emerging and developing Asian economies by 0.1 percentage points to 5.3% and 5.0% for this year and 2025, respectively, slowing from the 5.7% expansion in 2023. In India, the outlook on a fiscal year basis is for GDP growth to moderate from 8.2% in 2023 to 7% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, “because pent-up demand accumulated during the pandemic has been exhausted, as the economy reconnects with its potential”, the IMF said. For China, the IMF downgraded its projection for this year by two-tenths of a percentage to 4.8% from its 5% estimate in July. This is lower than China’s official growth target of around 5% for this year. The IMF’s China growth forecast for 2025 was unchanged at 4.5%. However, the slowdown in China is projected to be more gradual despite persisting weakness in the real estate sector and low consumer confidence, it said, largely thanks to better-than-expected net exports. The IMF’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas at a press conference on Tuesday said in its latest forecasts that China’s fiscal stimulus measures so far lacked detail and therefore were not included in the China growth outlook. China’s central bank stimulus measures, unveiled last month to spur lending, “would do little to materially lift growth”, Gourinchas was quoted by news agency Reuters as saying. China's economic forecast remains bleak, despite the government’s stimulus measures announced in late September, which briefly boosted market sentiment. China on 18 October reported year-on-year GDP growth of 4.6% in the second quarter, the slowest pace since early 2023, while overall growth in the first nine months of 2024 stood at 4.8%. China’s latest measures are insufficient to address its economic woes, economists have warned, and the IMF notes that significant risks remain, particularly in the troubled property sector. “Conditions for the real estate market could worsen, with further price corrections taking place amid a contraction in sales and investment,” the IMF said. “The experiences of Japan in the 1990s and the United States in 2008 suggest that a further price correction is a plausible downside risk if the crisis is not adequately addressed.” GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS OF CHINA’S SLOWDOWN A prolonged or severe downturn in China's property market, especially one that triggers financial instability, could dampen consumer confidence and negatively impact the global economy due to China’s significant role in international trade, the IMF warned. With China’s economy softening, global growth is expected to be a lackluster 3.1% in five years – a notch down from the pre-pandemic average, it said. Growth is projected to hold steady at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, but some low-income and developing economies have seen sizable downside growth revisions, often tied to intensifying conflicts. The IMF’s Gourinchas in a separate blog post said that downside risks are increasing and now dominate the global economic outlook. “An escalation in regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East, could pose serious risks for commodity markets,” he said. Global output could be significantly lower than the IMF’s baseline forecast due to shifts toward undesirable trade and industrial policies, overly tight monetary policy, or an abrupt tightening of global financial conditions, Gourinchas added. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

23-Oct-2024

LIMA (ICIS)–Brazil’s GDP is expected to grow by 3% in 2024, up sharply from prior forecasts of 2.1% growth published in July, the IMF said this week. Mexico’s growth, however, is expected to slow down to 1.5%, down sharply from the previous 2.2% forecast. For the Latin America and the Caribbean region as a whole, growth is projected at 2.1% in 2024, slightly up from the 1.9% forecast published in July, said the IMF. “[Brazil’s GDP growth forecast] is an upward revision … owing to stronger private consumption and investment in the first half of the year from a tight labor market, government transfers and smaller-than-anticipated disruptions from floods,” said the IMF. “However, with the still-restrictive monetary policy and the expected cooling of the labor market, growth is expected to moderate in 2025.” The more conservative forecast for the Mexican economy reflects weakening domestic demand on the back of monetary policy tightening, said the IMF, who projected the country’s growth would continue slowing down in 2025. The Fund expects Argentina's GDP to fall by 3.5% this year, a forecast considerably more optimistic than most economists. For detailed country-by-country figures see bottom table. INFLATION BATTLE WON – MOSTLYThe IMF celebrated how for most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean inflation rates have dropped significantly from their peaks and continue to be on a downward trend. The Washington-based body highlighted, however, how in some countries inflation is ticking up on the back of, among other factors, weather events, which can suddenly push prices for agricultural products. “Large countries in the region have experienced upward revisions since the April 2024 World Economic Outlook that reflect a mix of 1) robust wage growth preventing faster disinflation in the services sector (Brazil, Mexico); 2) weather events (Colombia); and 3) hikes in regulated electricity tariffs (Chile),” said the IMF. “[For example] Coffee prices rallied, rising by 33.8%, following weather-related supply concerns in key producers Brazil and Vietnam.” Despite adverse weather events, Brazil’s national supply corporation Conab said earlier in October that the 2024-2025 fertilizers-intensive agricultural season is set to reach a record high. Conab is forecasting grain production to reach 322.47 million tonnes in the 2024-2025 harvest, up 8.3% compared with the previous harvest. IMF forecasts (in % change) GDP growth 2023 GDP growth forecast 2024 GDP 2025 growth forecast Inflation 2023 Inflation forecast 2024 Inflation forecast 2025 Brazil 2.9 3.0 2.2 4.6 4.3 3.6 Mexico 3.2 1.5 1.3 5.5 4.7 3.8 Argentina -1.6 -3.5 5.0 133.5 229.8 62.7 Colombia 0.6 1.6 2.5 11.7 6.7 4.5 Chile 0.2 2.5 2.4 7.6 3.9 4.2 Peru -0.6 3.0 2.6 6.3 2.5 1.9 Ecuador 2.4 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.9 2.2 Venezuela 4.0 3.0 3.0 337.5 59.6 71.7 Bolivia 3.1 1.6 2.2 2.6 4.3 4.2 Paraguay 4.7 3.8 3.8 4.6 3.8 4.0 Uruguay 0.4 3.2 3.0 5.9 4.9 5.4 Latin America and the Caribbean 2.2 2.1 2.5 14.8 16.8 8.5

22-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Sherwin-Williams expects demand during the first half of 2025 will remain choppy while the company waits for what it expects will be an inevitable inflexion point for demand for its products, the US-based paints and coatings producer said on Tuesday. "The single largest variable heading into next year is the timing and pacing of a true inflexion in the demand environment," said Heidi Petz, CEO. She made her comments during an earnings conference call. "It is only a question of when, not if." Until that inflexion comes, Sherwin-Williams expects demand will remain choppy. During the third quarter, demand from consumers undertaking do-it-yourself (DIY) improvement projects remained soft, a trend also noted by RPM International, a company that makes coatings, adhesives and sealants. Sherwin-Williams attributed the softness for its DIY products to weaken existing home sales and inflation. For auto refinish products, insurance claims have fallen because consumers are reluctant to pay deductibles to get their vehicles repaired after accidents, Petz said. PPG also noted a decline in insurance claims. Near term, Sherwin-Williams warned about the possibility that its industrial customers could undergo extend holiday shutdowns. The company did not provide more details. However, US-based paints and coatings producer PPG did note that automobile original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) started taking unscheduled and prolonged downtime in the third quarter, and the trend should continue in the fourth quarter. DEMAND FROM HURRICANE REPAIRSHurricanes initially lower demand because they shut down paint stores and customers cannot immediately return to work. Ultimately, demand does rise after customers assess damage and pursue insurance claims. After about four weeks, demand for primers increases, Sherwin-Williams said. Sundries and paint then follow. Forecasting the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton are difficult because they hit weeks apart in the third and fourth quarters. TALK OF RENOVATION RESURGENCELonger term, the US could see a resurgence of home renovation projects, said Jim Jaye, senior vice president of investor relations. One of the economic indicators tracked by Sherwin-Williams is the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA), which is published by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. According to LIRA, spending for improvements and repairs on homes should expand once again by the middle of 2025. Economic growth, expected declines in inflation and higher home equity could encourage homeowners to undertake repairs and remodeling, he said. Paints and coatings are important end markets for many petrochemicals and resins. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is used as a white pigment and to make paints opaque. Solvents used in paints and coatings include ethyl acetate (etac), butyl acetate (butac) and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK). Polyurethane coatings are made with polyols and isocyanates such as methyl diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI). Acrylic based coatings are made with methyl methacrylate (MMA), and epoxy coatings are made with epoxy resins. Other chemicals used in paints and coatings include isopropanol (IPA) and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM). Thumbnail shows paint, one of the products made by Sherwin-Williams. Image by Oleksandr Latkun/imageBROKER/Shutterstock.

22-Oct-2024

EU energy policy must be less ideological in next five years, GIE conference hears Lowering high energy prices, which harm industry, a key goal for incoming Commission Commissioner confirmation hearings to take place 4-12 November MUNICH (ICIS)–The incoming European Commission must move away from ideological energy policy if it hopes to stabilize prices and keep industry competitive, delegates heard at the Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) conference in Munich on 17-18 October. However, despite an announced focus on a ‘clean industrial deal’, doubts remain that Europe can apply the lessons learned from the energy crisis. Speaking to ICIS on the sidelines, Tsvetelina Penkova, vice-chair of the European Parliament’s energy and industry committee said the thought the upcoming commissioner hearings would be “dynamic”, though she hoped the meetings would be constructive rather than unpleasant. Nominated commissioners must be confirmed by the European Parliament before they can take up their roles. Hearings are scheduled for 4-12 November. “The problem is quite a lot of topics are overlapping [in commissioners’ portfolios], so it’s very difficult to distinguish exactly the area of expertise,” she said, citing concerns over who would ultimately be responsible for decisions and the time involved if multiple people sign off policies. Penkova told delegates that fluctuations in energy prices between different regions harmed competitiveness and energy security. The discrepancy “really depends on the energy source that’s being used at the moment,” she said, as a lack of proper grid interconnections created bottlenecks, and without fixing this Europe’s energy landscape would remain dominated by local, regional or national solutions. The topic of surging heatwave-driven power prices experienced in central and southeastern Europe also dominated a meeting of EU energy ministers in Luxembourg on 15 October. Penkova called for energy resilience as well as a diversity of sources, including renewables, hydrogen, ammonia and other carriers, alongside storage and flexibility solutions. “We must understand that dependency only on one single sector or energy source is naive. That’s definitely not going to work,” she said. GIE president-elect Arno Bux stressed to delegates that gas infrastructure would remain vital for decades to come, citing nascent hydrogen, biomethane and carbon dioxide markets. “We all know pipelines … are by far the most efficient way to transport and store energy,” he said. But the industry was hindered by 1990s-era regulation, Bux said, which failed to foresee the need to maintain and expand infrastructure under uncertain conditions or the costs involved. NUCLEAR SCEPTICISM? Penkova dismissed concerns over nuclear skepticism previously voiced by the nominees for energy commissioner, Denmark’s Dan Jorgensen, and executive vice-president Teresa Ribera from Spain, tasked with delivering the ‘clean, just and competitive transition’. Noting that the parliament considered nuclear generation as strategic and sustainable technology, Penkova told ICIS she didn’t foresee any change in Europe’s policy, but instead hoped for better integration. “When we’re speaking of nuclear waste, we shouldn’t be looking only [at] the countries that are producing nuclear energy, but also at countries that are consuming [it], because we are all part of the waste creation,” she said. CLEAN AND INDUSTRIAL Ilaria Conti, gas expert and coordinator for strategy and development at the Florence School of Regulation, told delegates it was important the EU had not watered down its commitment to decarbonize, instead aiming to use industry as the “engine” of the transition. The shift followed the results of European parliamentary elections in June, which saw a perceived backlash against green policies. "The election results forced people to realise that achieving climate neutrality targets on time but losing the economy and the electorate along the way was unhelpful, " said Niko Bosnjak, head of policy and communication at the German grid operator OGE. Bosnjak said he worried that there was less urgency for policymakers to act since the pressure had eased, despite net-zero goals rapidly approaching. “I’m afraid we’re getting into the regular slump that we’ve been in before. I’m not saying I’m all for crises, ok? I think no one wants that, but we need to do better a better job in translating the learnings,” he said. For example, Bosnjak wondered why there was not middle ground between the 9-month construction of an LNG-import pipeline during the crisis and the return to an average of 6-8 years to build infrastructure. Conti said she thought plans to make the Commission more interdependent was “actually in my opinion a very smart move by Ursula von der Leyen.” The overlapping briefs would hopefully force incoming commissioners to cooperate, Conti said, breaking down past silos where each commissioner focused only on their own portfolio.

22-Oct-2024

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Changing trade flows driven by increasing friction between China, the US and their allies mean there will be demand for new chemical logistics routes and infrastructure, according to the executive chairman of chemical logistics group Bertschi. As direct chemical exports from China to the US decline, and more trade barriers go up, countries in Eastern Europe, southeast Asia plus Mexico and Turkey are acting as a stopping off points for indirect exports, while new chemical manufacturing also springs up in these areas, said Hans-Jorg Bertschi. He said: “The geopolitical situation also plays an important role – there are two blocs now – western countries and the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) led by China where we see a certain fragmentation of global trade. Chemical flows between China and the US are shrinking and we also now see a lot of triangulation trade where bridge countries in between take advantage of the situation.” Speaking on the side lines of the European Petrochemical Association’s annual conference in Berlin, he explained that China now transports a lot more chemicals to Mexico, where local manufacturers add value and then export finished goods to the US. Chemical producers – some from China – are building plants and businesses in Hungary and Turkey. There is also a flurry of activity in Morocco, India and Vietnam, which are all changing trade patterns around the globe, the executive believes. He said: “The reality is that new countries are emerging, which I call bridge countries between the blocs – some do not yet have the right chemicals infrastructure so here I would expect to see more investment in chemical logistics and supply chain infrastructure where there is growing local demand in addition to demand from regional fragmentation.” OTHER CHEMICAL TRADE FLOWS ALTER Bertschi pointed out that there is a clear increase of imports from the US to Europe based on the US feedstock advantage and growth of new-build facilities which are very efficient. “This has been going on for 3-4 years and will develop further. If you look at the average cracker size in Europe it’s about 350,000 tonnes/year whereas new world scale crackers are around 1 million tonnes/year. Also the average age of Europe’s crackers is 40-50… so I expect to see more closure announcements here, and more imports from the US, the Middle East and eventually from China.” CHEMICAL RECYCLING WILL DRIVE NEW LOGISTICS The chemical recycling sector is growing, with 83 projects in Europe alone recorded in the ICIS Recycling Supply Tracker – Chemical.  Globally the database records 173 sites and this nascent part of the chemical industry will create some completely new logistics requirements and trade flows according to Bertschi. He pointed out that the current linear model for chemical production just requires oil and gas to move mainly by pipeline to refinery and cracker sites. The finished products –  chemicals and polymers – are then distributed to downstream customers. The circular economy creates new flows of material which will require logistics support: “But now, with renewables, we have new flows of product which will require inbound logistics to deliver feedstocks into these plants. Pyrolysis oil will then be produced across regions which will require complex inbound logistics to refineries.” Bertschi has started placing storage centers near to crackers, plus heating and testing facilities for pyrolysis oil, which is a product of chemical recycling which can be used as a circular feedstock for chemical production. “This is not homogenous – it needs to be analysed before it is put into a cracker.  Previously just a pipe was needed but now complex inbound logistics will be required. We will import pyrolysis oil from across Europe and the US and some of this is already happening – this is at the beginning but it is becoming one of our growth drivers.” Interview by Will Beacham Image credit: Georgios Tsichlis/Shutterstock

22-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The short-term demand outlook for recycled polymers from Asia remains sluggish especially for low-value grades, mainly due to poor economics and brand users’ preference of cheaper virgin plastics. Upcoming regulation in deep-sea regions fails to support Asia recycled polyethylene terephthalate (rPET) exports Asia recycled polyethylene (rPE), recycled polypropylene (rPP) remain traded mostly in domestic markets Investments into recycling continue across Asia despite weak demand In this chemical podcast, ICIS senior editor Arianne Perez discusses recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia.

22-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: The recent clamor about new economic stimulus in China didn’t change anything. After initial stock market rallies, investors parsed the details and realized that Beijing was either unable or unwilling (it is surely a combination of both) to redirect the economy towards much greater domestic consumption and away from investment. It is what it is. The only question now is how low Chinese chemicals demand growth will go over the next decade and more. Will we see a negative growth in some years for some products, especially those tied to construction? Today’s main average polyethylene (PE) margins in northeast Asia between January 2014 and 18 October this year, weighted according to the estimated percentage shares of the three grades out of toral production in each of the 11 years from 2014 until 2024. As LDPE accounted for an average of just 16% in 2014-2024 versus 46% for high density PE (HDPE) and 38% for linear low density PE (LLDPE), then of course more weight was given to the margins of the latter two polymers. Despite all the sound and fury of the recent stimulus: Margins during the Chemicals Supercycle, from January 2015 until December 2022, averaged a positive $435/tonne. From January 2022 until August 2024 (before the most recent stimulus), they averaged minus $32/tonne. From January 2022 until 18 October 2024 (including post-stimulus), they averaged minus $29/tonne; from 1 September-18 October, the margins were at a positive $25/tonne. In other words, the most recent stimulus has barely moved the needle towards returning the northeast Asia PE business to a health condition. Chemicals and polymers are a very good barometer for broader economies. A view from this year’s European Petrochemical Association (EPCA): three to nine years before a full recovery This year’s EPCA in Berlin appeared as if it was attended by more senior executives than is usually the case. “Normally, companies send junior- to mid-level executives to the EPCA, but on this occasion more senior leaders were present because they wanted to try and gauge what happens next,” said one contact. I got the sense from my conversations at EPCA that there is recognition at board levels that the global chemicals industry is it an inflection point, not just because of events in China. The last chart in today’s post is a means of getting the debate going about the wider transformation taking place. Back to the downturn and China. Everyone I spoke to at EPCA recognized that China was front and center of the downturn, given the type of data I presented above. Estimates of when a full recovery might arrive ranged from a further three years to as many as nine years. But there was also a recognition, as the above chart suggests, that we may never fully return to the old market conditions. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

22-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Affected by tropical weather impacts in late September, Canadian fertilizer major Nutrien confirmed its Florida phosphate facility in White Springs did restart late last week. While the producer has not revealed its post-storm assessment, it did say the operations were currently ramping up production. The site was among other Nutrien operations that were shut down under safety protocols during storm-induced power failures as Hurricane Helene made landfall. Following the storm, the company had stated all its colleagues were safe, but many area roads were closed due to downed power lines and flooding. The first storm was followed by the recent Hurricane Milton, but Nutrien said after that event it was not impacted at the White Springs phosphate facility and it was working with customers on any potential impacts to supply. There were no further details provided regarding supply disruption. Earlier in the day, producer Mosaic said all its Florida-based employees were safe and that the Riverview facility has resumed activity and should return to normal rates by the end of the week. Further, it stated all other Florida sites have resumed operations with its mining activity in the process of restarting. Due to the storm impacts, the company does anticipate a production decrease with it estimated to fall between 200,000-250,000 tonnes in Q4.

21-Oct-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 18 October. NEWSArgentina’s Rio Tercero shuts TDI plant on global oversupply Petroquimica Rio Tercero has shut its toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) plant in Cordoba on the back of global oversupply, a spokesperson for the Argentinian producer confirmed to ICIS on Tuesday. Brazil’s higher chemicals import tariffs kick off Brazil’s higher import tariffs on dozens of chemicals kicked off on Tuesday after the government published them on the Official Gazette late on Monday. Brazil’s Senate approves EU Reach-like rules to increase chemicals control Brazil’s Senate approved on 15 October the creation of a National Inventory of Chemical Substances aiming at “reducing negative impacts” of toxic chemicals on human and environmental health. PRICING Mexico PE domestic prices lower on weak demand, ample supplyDomestic polyethylene (PE) prices dropped in Mexico due to weak demand and ample supply. In other Latin American countries, prices were unchanged. Brazil hydrous and anhydrous ethanol sales surgeIn Brazil, 1.73 billion liters of hydrous ethanol were sold by Center-South units, representing a 4.36% increase over the same period in the previous harvest. This expansion demonstrates the domestic market's ongoing need for hydrous ethanol. Dow plans maintenance at LLDPE unit in Argentina – sourcesDow is having a scheduled maintenance at its linear 310,000 tonne/year low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) plant in Bahia Blanca, Argentina, until 5 November, according to market sources. Chile, Peru international PP prices drop on lower Chinese offers International polypropylene (PP) prices dropped in Chile and Peru on the back of lower offers from China. Chinese offers retreated this week, after rising the previous week due to higher crude oil prices.

21-Oct-2024