2010 Hawaii's 1st congressional district special election: Difference between revisions
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==Special election rules== |
==Special election rules== |
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The election will be held without a primary, meaning all candidates from all parties will run against one another and the person with the most votes (even if only a plurality) wins; there is no runoff.<ref name="Politico_09-12-21">{{cite web | url=http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30837.html | title=GOP sets sights on blue Hawaii | date=December 21, 2009 | work=Politico | first=Josh | last=Kraushaar | accessdate=March 12, 2010}}</ref> With three top-tier candidates running, two Democrats and one Republican, there is a possibility that the two Democrats could split the vote and allow the heavily Democratic district to be represented by a Republican.<ref name="Politico_09-12-21"/> |
The election will be held without a primary, meaning all candidates from all parties will run against one another and the person with the most votes (even if only a plurality) wins; there is no runoff.<ref name="Politico_09-12-21">{{cite web | url=http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30837.html | title=GOP sets sights on blue Hawaii | date=December 21, 2009 | work=Politico | first=Josh | last=Kraushaar | accessdate=March 12, 2010}}</ref> With three top-tier candidates running, two Democrats and one Republican, there is a possibility that the two Democrats could split the vote and allow the heavily Democratic district to be represented by a Republican.<ref name="Politico_09-12-21"/> |
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==Candidates== |
==Candidates== |
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Revision as of 10:18, 13 March 2010
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| Elections in Hawaii |
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The 2010 special election for the 1st congressional district of Hawaii is a special election to the United States House of Representatives that will take place to fill the vacancy caused by Representative Neil Abercrombie's resignation on Febuary 28, 2010 to focus on his campaign for Governor of Hawaii in the 2010 gubernatorial election.[1][2] Abercrombie planned to not run for re-election in 2010, and many of the candidates that were running for his open seat have transferred to the special election.[1] The election will be held on May 22, 2010, and will be handled completely by mail.[3]
Special election rules
The election will be held without a primary, meaning all candidates from all parties will run against one another and the person with the most votes (even if only a plurality) wins; there is no runoff.[4] With three top-tier candidates running, two Democrats and one Republican, there is a possibility that the two Democrats could split the vote and allow the heavily Democratic district to be represented by a Republican.[4] However, as the Republican candidate is trailing both Democratic candidates, and is polling 20 points behind the lead candidate, this seems extremely unlikely to occur
Candidates
Democrats
- Former Congressmember Ed Case
- State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa
Republicans
- Honolulu City Councilmember Charles Djou
Campaign
Democratic leaders have conceded that the winner-take-all primary favors the one lone Republican in the race. Even Republican candidate Djou acknowledged that the situation greatly benefits him. The Republican National Committee (RNC) has indicated it may directly support Djou with the hope of winning a Congressional seat in a historically strongly Democratic state;[5] RNC political director Gentry Collins referred to Scott Brown's victory in a Massachusetts special election for the U.S. Senate in stating: "I think for us to win that seat will send a signal that what happened in Massachusetts is not an isolated event."[6] At a state Republican gathering on February 27, Karl Rove further stated that a Djou victory would indicate a strong potential for other Republicans competing in Congressional elections to be held in November.[7]
On the Democratic side, it is unlikely that either Case or Hanabusa will drop out and endorse the other. Both represent different wings of the party, Case being more of a blue-dog moderate Democrat, while Hanabusa is preferred by the liberal wing and the party establishment.[4] Hanabusa is the favorite of the party establishment, and already has secured the endorsement of EMILY's List.[4] Case is at odds with the party establishment over his primary challenge to U.S. Senator Daniel Akaka in 2006 when he was still Representative of the 2nd district.[4], although Case has claimed that any bad blood with the Democratic electorate over the primary challenge is gone, according to his internal polling.[8] Case has also criticized Hanabusa for keeping her post as president of the State Senate while attempting to campaign, saying: "It is inconsistent for her to want to run the Senate in a time of crisis for our state and want to run a full-fledged congressional campaign."[9]
Both Case and Hanabusa have proposed that the other drop out for the sake of party unity.[10] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has dispatched an aide to the state in the hopes of at least ensuring no other Democrats enter the race.[4] It is unlikely either Democrat will drop out; both representing different views and both having already faced off in a 2002 special election for Hawaii's 2nd Congressional district; which Case won.[4][11] The DCCC chariman Congressman Chris Van Hollen has said he is counting on Abercrombie to help keep the seat Democratic; indicating that endorsements might be used to show which Democrat is preferred by the national party.[12]
While it is the conventional wisdom that Case and Hanabusa will split the Democratic vote, it is also possible that Djou and Case could split the more moderate/conservative vote considering that Case is a blue dog Democrat, thus allowing Hanabusa to consolidate the large liberal vote of the district.[13]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of Error |
Ed Case (D) | Charles Djou (R) | Colleen Hanabusa (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu Star-Bulletin/Mason-Dixon | January 8–12, 2010 | 403 | ±5% | 37% | 17% | 25% | 21% |
References
- ^ a b Borreca, Richard (December 11, 2009). "Abercrombie to resign from Congress to run for governor". Honolulu Star-Bulletin. Retrieved December 16, 2009.
- ^ "Abercrombie resigns post". Honolulu Star-Bulletin. March 1, 2010. Retrieved March 12, 2010.
- ^ "Hawaii's all-mail congressional election set for May 22". The Honolulu Advertiser. Associated Press. March 2, 2010. Retrieved March 4, 2010.
- ^ a b c d e f g Kraushaar, Josh (December 21, 2009). "GOP sets sights on blue Hawaii". Politico. Retrieved March 12, 2010.
- ^ Borreca, Richard (January 28, 2010). "Republicans envision coup with Djou". Honolulu Star-Bulletin. Retrieved March 12, 2010.
- ^ DePledge, Derrick (January 28, 2010). "GOP sees opportunity in Islands". Honolulu Advertiser. Retrieved March 12, 2010.
- ^ DePledge, Derrick (February 27, 2010). "Rove sees 'ugly year' ahead for Dems". Honolulu Advertiser. Retrieved March 12, 2010.
- ^ Miller, Sean J. (December 18, 2009). "Case: Dems forgave Akaka challenge". The Hill. Retrieved March 12, 2010.
- ^ Borreca, Richard (January 14, 2010). "Case, Hanabusa spar over election". Honolulu Star-Bulletin. Retrieved March 12, 2010.
- ^ Miller, Sean J. (December 26, 2009). "Lingering resentment could play into Hawaii congressional race". The Hill. Retrieved March 12, 2010.
- ^ Gima, Craig (January 6, 2003). "Victorious Case sees end of old-style politics". Honolulu Star-Bulletin. Retrieved March 12, 2010.
- ^ Soraghan, Mike; Blake, Aaron (December 11, 2009). "Both parties prepare for special election for Abercrombie seat". The Hill. Retrieved March 12, 2010.
- ^ Nichanian, Daniel (December 11, 2009). "Rep. Neil Abercrombie's resignation sets up confusing special election". Campaign Diaries. Retrieved March 12, 2010.