2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma

2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
	County results; Coburn: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%; Carson: 40–50% 50–60%
U.S. senator before election; Don Nickles; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; Tom Coburn; Republican

The 2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma took place on November 2, 2004. The election was concurrent with elections to the United States House of Representatives and the presidential election. Incumbent Senator Don Nickles decided to retire instead of seeking a fifth term. Fellow Republican Tom Coburn won the open seat.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Brad Carson, U.S. Representative
Carroll Fisher, Oklahoma Insurance Commissioner
Jim Rogers, perennial candidate
Monte E. Johnson, attorney
W. B. G. Woodson

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[1]	Margin of error	Brad Carson	Carroll Fisher	Jim Rogers	Monte Johnson	W. B. G. Woodson	Undecided/ Other
SurveyUSA^[2]	June 25–27, 2004	563 (LV)	± 4.2%	61%	15%	6%	4%	1%	13%
Wilson Research Strategies^[3]	May 20–21, 2004	300 (RV)	± 5.7%	45%	7%		3%		45%

Results

Democratic primary results^[4]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Brad Carson	280,026	79.37%
	Democratic	Carroll Fisher	28,385	8.05%
	Democratic	Jim Rogers	20,179	5.72%
	Democratic	Monte E. Johnson	17,274	4.90%
	Democratic	W. B. G. Woodson	6,932	1.96%
Total votes			352,796	100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Tom Coburn, former U.S. Representative
Kirk Humphreys, former Mayor of Oklahoma City
Bob Anthony, Oklahoma Corporation Commissioner
Jay Richard Hunt, activist

Campaign

Humphreys, the former Mayor of Oklahoma City, ran for the United States Senate with institutional conservative support, namely from Senators Don Nickles and Jim Inhofe, as well as former Congressman J. C. Watts. However, Coburn received support from the Club for Growth and conservative activists within Oklahoma. Humphreys noted, "[Coburn is] kind of a cult hero in the conservative portion of our party, not just in Oklahoma. You can't get right of the guy."^[5] Much of Coburn's celebrity within the Republican Party came from his tenure in Congress, where he battled House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who he argued was moving the party to the center of the political spectrum due to their excessive federal spending.^[6] Coburn's maverick nature culminated itself in 2000 when he backed conservative activist Alan Keyes for President rather than George W. Bush or John McCain.

Ultimately, Coburn triumphed over Humphreys, Anthony, and Hunt in the primary, winning every county in Oklahoma except for tiny Harmon County.

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[1]	Margin of error	Tom Coburn	Kirk Humphreys	Bob Anthony	Jay Richard Hunt	Linda Murphy	Undecided/ Other
SurveyUSA^[7]	July 23–25, 2004	517 (LV)	± 4.4%	54%	25%	13%			8%
SurveyUSA^[8]	July 16–18, 2004	436 (LV)	± 4.8%	46%	32%	12%			10%
Club for Growth (R)^[9]	July 11–12, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	51%	22%	8%			19%
Consumer Logic^[10]	July 8–12, 2004	291 (RV)	± 5.9%	37%	34%	7%	1%		21%
SurveyUSA^[2]	June 25–27, 2004	408 (LV)	± 5%	38%	34%	16%			12%
CMA Strategies (R)^[11]	June 6–8, 2004	400 (LV)	± 5%	34%	36%	10%			20%
Wilson Research Strategies^[3]	May 20–21, 2004	300 (RV)	± 5.7%	21%	21%	11%		5%	42%
Consumer Logic^[12]	Mar 26–Apr 5, 2004		± 5.9%	34%	22%	12%			32%

Results

Republican primary results^[4]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tom Coburn	145,974	61.23%
	Republican	Kirk Humphreys	59,877	25.12%
	Republican	Bob Anthony	29,596	12.41%
	Republican	Jay Richard Hunt	2,944	1.23%
Total votes			238,391	100.00%

General election

Candidates

Sheila Bilyeu (I), perennial candidate^[13]
Brad Carson (D), United States Congressman from Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district
Tom Coburn (R), former United States Congressman from Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district

Campaign

Carson and Coburn engaged each other head-on in one of the year's most brutal Senate contests. Coburn and the National Republican Senatorial Committee attacked Carson for being too liberal for Oklahoma and for being a vote in lockstep with John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and Ted Kennedy. To drive the point home, one television advertisement aired by the Coburn campaign accused Carson of being "dangerously liberal" and not supporting the War on Terrorism.^[14] Coburn was aided in this effort by the fact that the Kerry campaign did not contest the state of Oklahoma and that incumbent President George W. Bush was expected to win Oklahoma comfortably. This was compounded by the fact that Vice-President Dick Cheney campaigned for Coburn and appeared in several television advertisements for him.^[15] Carson countered by emphasizing his Stilwell roots^[16] and his moderation, specifically, bringing attention to the fact that he fought for greater governmental oversight of nursing home care for the elderly.^[17] Carson responded to the attacks against him by countering that his opponent had committed Medicaid fraud years prior, in an event that reportedly left a woman sterilized without her consent.^[18] Ultimately, however, Carson was not able to overcome Oklahoma's conservative nature and Senator Kerry's abysmal performance in Oklahoma, and he was defeated by Coburn by 11.5%. As of 2022, the result remains the closest the Democrats have come to winning a Senate election in Oklahoma since David Boren won a landslide reelection victory in 1990.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[19]	Lean R	November 1, 2004

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[1]	Margin of error	Tom Coburn (R)	Brad Carson (D)	Sheila Bilyeu (I)	Undecided/ Other
SurveyUSA^[20]	October 28–30, 2004	656 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%	39%	8%	6%
Sooner Poll^[21]	October 27–28, 2004	498 (LV)	± 4.4%	44.4%	35.1%	4.2%	16.3%
Wilson Research Strategies^[22]	October 22–24, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	41%	38%	6%	15%
Sooner Poll^[23]	October 20–21, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	38.0%	36.8%	5.8%	19.4%
Rasmussen Reports^[24]	October 20, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	48%	43%		9%
SurveyUSA^[25]	October 18–20, 2004	625 (LV)	± 4%	47%	41%	8%	4%
Global Strategy Group (D)^[26]	August 18–20, 2004	600 (LV)	± 4%	44%	45%		11%
Consumer Logic^[27]	October 14–19, 2004	750 (RV)	± 3.6%	40%	47%		13%
Wilson Research Strategies^[28]	October 15–17, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	42.2%	39.0%	3.6%	14.4%
Sooner Poll^[29]	October 14, 2004	300 (LV)	± 5.7%	40.6%	43.3%	2.0%	14.1%
Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)^[30]	October 10–11, 2004	500 (RV)	± 4.3%	46%	41%	3%	10%
Wilson Research Strategies^[31]^[32]	October 8–10, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	37.8%	40.0%	7.2%	15.0%
Sooner Poll^[33]	October 7, 2004	330 (LV)	± 5.4%	39.2%	39.8%		21.0%
SurveyUSA^[34]	October 4–6, 2004	609 (LV)	± 4.1%	46%	44%	5%	5%
Wilson Research Strategies^[35]^[36]	October 1–3, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	41.2%	42.6%	2.4%	13.8%
Sooner Poll^[37]	September 28–29, 2004	553 (LV)	± 4.1%	37.2%	44.1%		18.7%
Basswood Research (R)^[38]	September 27, 2004		± 4.4%	41.0%	39.6%	2.4%	17.0%
Wilson Research Strategies^[39]^[40]	September 24–26, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	39.2%	44.2%	3.2%	13.4%
Global Strategy Group (D)^[26]	September 24, 2004	600 (LV)	± 4%	40%	44%		16%
Sooner Poll^[41]	September 22, 2004	394 (LV)	± 4.9%	37.0%	39.8%		23.2%
SurveyUSA^[42]	September 20–22, 2004	610 (LV)	± 4%	45%	45%	6%	4%
Wilson Research Strategies^[43]	September 17–19, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	40%	41%	2%	17%
Sooner Poll^[44]	September 15, 2004	412 (LV)	± 4.8%	35%	42%		23%
Wilson Research Strategies^[45]	September 10–12, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	37%	39%	6%	18%
Wilson Research Strategies^[43]	September 3–5, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	42%	36%	5%	17%
Westhill Partners^[46]	September 1–2, 2004	400 (LV)	± 5%	42%	44%	1%	13%
SurveyUSA^[47]	August 16–18, 2004	586 (LV)	± 4.1%	47%	43%		10%
Wilson Research Strategies^[48]	August 15–18, 2004	300 (LV)	± 5.6%	46%	37%	2%	15%
Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)^[49]	August 10–12, 2004	500 (RV)	± 4.3%	47%	39%		14%
Global Strategy Group (D)^[50]	August 8–11, 2004	600 (LV)	± 4%	45%	43%		12%
Basswood Research (R)^[51]	July 29, 2004	600 (LV)	± 4%	43.5%	31.8%		24.7%
Consumer Logic^[10]	July 8–12, 2004	825 (RV)	± 3.4%	39%	42%		21%
Wilson Research Strategies^[52]	June 28–29, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	37%	35%	1%	27%
Wilson Research Strategies^[3]	May 20–21, 2004	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	39%		20%
Consumer Logic^[12]	Mar 26–Apr 5, 2004	825 (RV)	± 3.4%	35%	37%		28%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[1]	Margin of error	Kirk Humphreys (R)	Brad Carson (D)	Sheila Bilyeu (I)	Undecided/ Other
Consumer Logic^[10]	July 8–12, 2004	825 (RV)	± 3.4%	38%	47%		15%
Wilson Research Strategies^[52]	June 28–29, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	34%	41%	2%	23%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[1]	Margin of error	Bob Anthony (R)	Brad Carson (D)	Sheila Bilyeu (I)	Undecided/ Other
Wilson Research Strategies^[52]	June 28–29, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	34%	39%	2%	25%

Results

2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma^[53]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Tom Coburn	763,433	52.77%	−13.62%
	Democratic	Brad Carson	596,750	41.24%	+9.97%
	Independent	Sheila Bilyeu	86,663	5.99%
Majority			166,683	11.52%	−23.58%
Turnout			1,446,846
	Republican hold		Swing

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Atoka (Largest city: Atoka)
Bryan (Largest city: Durant)
Caddo (Largest city: Anadarko)
Coal (Largest city: Coalgate)
Cotton (Largest city: Walters)
Craig (Largest city: Vinita)
Greer (Largest city: Mangum)
Harmon (Largest city: Hollis)
Jefferson (Largest city: Waurika)
Johnston (Largest city: Tishomingo)
Kiowa (Largest city: Hobart)
Le Flore (Largest city: Poteau)
Love (Largest city: Marietta)
Marshall (Largest city: Madill)
Mayes (Largest city: Pryor Creek)
Murray (Largest city: Sulphur)
Nowata (Largest city: Nowata)
Okfuskee (Largest city: Okemah)
Osage (Largest city: Hominy)
Pittsburg (Largest city: McAlester)
Pushmataha (Largest city: Antlers)
Seminole (Largest city: Seminole)
Sequoyah (Largest city: Sallisaw)
Tillman (Largest city: Frederick)
Cherokee (Largest city: Tahlequah)
Choctaw (Largest city: Hugo)
Hughes (Largest city: Holdenville)
Latimer (Largest city: Wilburton)
McIntosh (Largest city: Checotah)
Muskogee (Largest city: Muskogee)
Okmulgee (Largest city: Okmulgee)
Ottawa (Largest city: Miami)
Delaware (Largest city: Grove)
Adair (Largest city: Stilwell)

Notes

References

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ ^a ^b SurveyUSA
^ ^a ^b ^c Wilson Research Strategies
^ ^a ^b "Oklahoma State Election Board - Primary Election 2004". Archived from the original on August 30, 2010. Retrieved December 27, 2012.
^ Stolberg, Sheryl Gay (September 19, 2004). "A Senate Race in Oklahoma Lifts the Right". The New York Times.
^ "Tom Coburn–The real maverick in the Senate | Political Realities". Archived from the original on July 23, 2011. Retrieved March 30, 2010.
^ SurveyUSA
^ SurveyUSA
^ Club for Growth (R)
^ ^a ^b ^c Consumer Logic
^ CMA Strategies (R)
^ ^a ^b Consumer Logic
^ Krehbiel, Randy "Former Oklahoma City TV journalist Abby Broyles files to take on Sen. Jim Inhofe" Tulsa World Apr. 9, 2020 Accessed Oct. 11, 2021.
^ Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine: "Tom Coburn 2004 U.S. Senate "Dangerously Liberal"". YouTube.
^ http://www3.nationaljournal.com/members/adspotlight/2004/10/1007oksen1.htm^{[permanent dead link]}
^ Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine: "Brad Carson U.S. Senate 2004 "Stilwell"". YouTube.
^ "Carson's First Stand Should Feds Examine Nursing Homes? | News OK". newsok.com. Archived from the original on December 8, 2015. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
^ "Okla. Senate Candidate Is Accused of Fraud (washingtonpost.com)". The Washington Post.
^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
^ SurveyUSA
^ Sooner Poll
^ Wilson Research Strategies
^ Sooner Poll
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ SurveyUSA
^ ^a ^b Global Strategy Group (D)
^ Consumer Logic
^ Wilson Research Strategies
^ Sooner Poll
^ Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)
^ Wilson Research Strategies
^ p. 2
^ Sooner Poll
^ SurveyUSA
^ Wilson Research Strategies
^ p. 2
^ Sooner Poll
^ Basswood Research (R)
^ Wilson Research Strategies
^ p. 2
^ Sooner Poll
^ SurveyUSA
^ ^a ^b Wilson Research Strategies
^ Sooner Poll
^ Wilson Research Strategies
^ Westhill Partners
^ SurveyUSA
^ Wilson Research Strategies
^ Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)
^ Global Strategy Group (D)
^ Basswood Research (R)
^ ^a ^b ^c Wilson Research Strategies
^ Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 2, 2004" (PDF).

[key-1] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[SurveyUSA-2] SurveyUSA

[Wilson_Research_Strategies-3] Wilson Research Strategies

[Primary_election_results-4] "Oklahoma State Election Board - Primary Election 2004". Archived from the original on August 30, 2010. Retrieved December 27, 2012.

[5] Stolberg, Sheryl Gay (September 19, 2004). "A Senate Race in Oklahoma Lifts the Right". The New York Times.

[6] "Tom Coburn–The real maverick in the Senate | Political Realities". Archived from the original on July 23, 2011. Retrieved March 30, 2010.

[7] SurveyUSA

[8] SurveyUSA

[9] Club for Growth (R)

[Consumer_Logic-10] Consumer Logic

[11] CMA Strategies (R)

[upi.com-12] Consumer Logic

[13] Krehbiel, Randy "Former Oklahoma City TV journalist Abby Broyles files to take on Sen. Jim Inhofe" Tulsa World Apr. 9, 2020 Accessed Oct. 11, 2021.

[14] Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine: "Tom Coburn 2004 U.S. Senate "Dangerously Liberal"". YouTube.

[15] ttp://www3.nationaljournal.com/members/adspotlight/2004/10/1007oksen1.htm^{[permanent dead link]}

[16] Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine: "Brad Carson U.S. Senate 2004 "Stilwell"". YouTube.

[17] "Carson's First Stand Should Feds Examine Nursing Homes? | News OK". newsok.com. Archived from the original on December 8, 2015. Retrieved June 6, 2022.

[18] "Okla. Senate Candidate Is Accused of Fraud (washingtonpost.com)". The Washington Post.

[19] "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2021.

[20] SurveyUSA

[21] Sooner Poll

[22] Wilson Research Strategies

[23] Sooner Poll

[24] Rasmussen Reports

[25] SurveyUSA

[Global_Strategy_Group_D-26] Global Strategy Group (D)

[27] Consumer Logic

[28] Wilson Research Strategies

[29] Sooner Poll

[30] Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)

[31] Wilson Research Strategies

[32] . 2

[33] Sooner Poll

[34] SurveyUSA

[35] Wilson Research Strategies

[36] . 2

[37] Sooner Poll

[38] Basswood Research (R)

[39] Wilson Research Strategies

[40] . 2

[41] Sooner Poll

[42] SurveyUSA

[web.archive.org-43] Wilson Research Strategies

[44] Sooner Poll

[45] Wilson Research Strategies

[46] Westhill Partners

[47] SurveyUSA

[48] Wilson Research Strategies

[49] Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)

[50] Global Strategy Group (D)

[51] Basswood Research (R)

[newspapers.com-52] Wilson Research Strategies

[53] Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 2, 2004" (PDF).

[1]

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Democratic primary

Candidates

Polling

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Campaign

Polling

Results

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

Notes

References