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2012 Finnish presidential election

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2012 Finnish presidential election
← 2006 22 January and 5 February 2012 2018 →
 
Nominee Sauli Niinistö Pekka Haavisto
Party National Coalition Green
Popular vote 1,802,400 1,076,957
Percentage 62.6% 37.4%
President before election

Tarja Halonen
SDP

Elected President

Sauli Niinistö
National Coalition

The first round of the presidential election was held in Finland. The first round took place on 22 January 2012, with advance voting from 11–17 January; and the second round occured from 25-31 January The elected candidate's term will begin on 1 March 2012 and last until 2018.[1] The incumbent Tarja Halonen was ineligible for re-election, having served the maximum two terms.[2]

All the eight political parties represented in the Eduskunta nominated a candidate during the latter half of 2011. No candidate received a majority of votes in the first round; with 37.0 percent of the vote, Sauli Niinistö of the National Coalition Party won the first round and faced off against Pekka Haavisto of the Green League, who got 18.8% of the vote, in a two-round system.[3][4] Niinistö led the polls prior to the election, while Haavisto was neck and neck with Paavo Väyrynen of the Centre Party competing for the second place, ultimately defeating Väyrynen by a margin of 1.3 percentage points (about 37,000 votes).

The election marks an end to an era of Social Democratic presidents. The Social Democrats have held the office for a continuous period of 30 years. It is also the first time that a Green League candidate is on the runoff ballot.[5]

In the second round Sauli Niinistö won the Presidential Election with 62.6% of votes and over 1.8 million voters support. Pekka Haavisto received 37.4% and 1.1 million voters support.

Power of the president

The President's powers were curtailed in the constitutional reform in 2000, and yet further in 2011.[6] Currently the President leads the Finnish foreign policy together with the cabinet. EU affairs, however, fall to the Prime Minister's authority. The President has little domestic power. He or she can dissolve the parliament, but only at the Prime Minister's request. The President can choose not to ratify a bill, but this only returns it to parliament, which must then approve the bill again in order for it to become a law without the President's signature. The President's power to appoint officials has been reduced, but he or she still appoints all military officers as well as judges. The President is the Commander-in-Chief of the Finnish Defence Forces. The President also has the power to pardon anyone convicted of a crime.[7][8][9][10]

With the curtailment of the President's formal powers, many analysts have emphasized the President's position as a leader of values.[11]

Candidates

All eight parties represented in the Eduskunta nominated a candidate. The nomination was unanimous in seven parties, while the Social Democratic Party's candidate was decided in a primary, which was won by Paavo Lipponen with 67 percent of the votes defeating Tuula Haatainen, who got 22 percent of the votes, and Ilkka Kantola who received 11 percent of the votes.[12] Each candidate has been given a number from 2 to 9 – voting happens by writing the candidate's number on the ballot paper.[13]

Constituency associations for independents or parties not represented in the Eduskunta must gather 20,000 signatures from eligible voters in order to participate in the election.[14] In 2012, no such associations participated. Pekka Hallberg, President of the Supreme Administrative Court, considered running as a non-partisan candidate, but eventually withdrew.[15]

Confirmed candidates

Candidates

Pekka Haavisto
Green League
Member of Parliament, former Minister of the Environment
Electoral number: 2
Nominated 11 June[16]
Timo Soini
True Finns
Member of Parliament, party leader
Electoral number: 3
Nominated 15 October[17]
Paavo Väyrynen
Centre Party
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Former Minister for Foreign Trade
Electoral number: 4
Nominated 29 October[18]
Paavo Lipponen
Social Democratic Party
Former Prime Minister, former Speaker of the Parliament
Electoral number: 5
Nominated 8 October[19]

Sauli Niinistö
National Coalition Party
Former Minister of Finance, former Speaker of the Parliament
Electoral number: 6
Nominated 22 October[20]
Sari Essayah
Christian Democrats
Member of the European Parliament
Electoral number: 7
Nominated 26 November[21]
Eva Biaudet
Swedish People's Party
Ombudsman for Minorities, former Minister of Health and Social Services
Electoral number: 8
Nominated 22 October[22]
Paavo Arhinmäki
Left Alliance
Incumbent Minister of Culture and Sport, party leader
Electoral number: 9
Nominated 20 November[23]

Previously plausible candidates

National Coalition Party

Declined to run:

Social Democratic Party

Announced, then defeated in primary:

Declined to run:
The following persons initially expressed interest toward running or were mentioned in speculation, but did not sign up for the party's primary, which started on 22 August.[29]

Centre Party

Declined to run:
The following persons were mentioned in speculation, but none of them signed up for the party's primary by the deadline 9 September. Paavo Väyrynen was the only announced candidate and thus a primary was not needed.[37]

Swedish People's Party

Declined to run:

  • Christoffer Taxell, former Minister of Justice and former Minister of Education, was proposed as a possible joint candidate of the Swedish People's Party and the Centre Party.[39]
Other parties

Campaign

According to political analysts Salla Laaksonen and Kimmo Elo, the main dividing line between the presidential candidates in this election is not the traditional division over ideology, but instead voters are placing more stress on a candidate's views on the EU and social issues.[48]

Professor Leif Åberg has described the campaign as "relatively civil,"[49] but there have been a few accusations of negative campaigning. Some of Pekka Haavisto's supporters felt offended over a television advert by the Paavo Väyrynen campaign which says that "a house needs a master and a mistress." Haavisto's supporters interpreted this as a taunt on Haavisto's relationship status (Haavisto lives in a registered partnership with another man). Väyrynen responded by rejecting this interpretation and in turn accused Haavisto's supporters of deliberately twisting his words.[50] The satirical television programme YleLeaks mocked the election in mid-December 2011. Niinistö’s wife, Jenni Haukio, complained with a letter to YLE's A Studio saying that she was a private person. An A-Studio political reporter also criticised Iltalehti of news in favour of Sauli Niinistö.[51] Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja accused Editor A.-P. Pietilä of undervaluing Haavisto’s abilities in foreign policy based on his companion: Pietilä wrote, citing an unnamed civil servant, that Haavisto's election as president might complicate Finland's bid for being elected non-permanent member in the UN Security Council, as multiple countries where homosexuality is outlawed might oppose the bid in this scenario. (Pietilä works for Suomen Lehtiyhtymä, which is owned by the NCP MP Eero Lehti).[52]

Funding

The parties have budgeted considerably less money for their campaigns than during the last presidential election in 2006. This is in part due to the economic crisis and in part due to scandals involving campaign funding during recent years. According to initial estimates the four largest parties combined planned to spend less than 3 million euros.[53]

Of the second round candidates Niinistö's budget was 1.2 million euros and Haavisto's budget was 725,000 euros.[54][55]

Debates

File:Finnish presidential election, 2012 candidate posters.JPG
Posters of all candidates in Helsinki.
First round

MTV3 organised a debate with all eight candidates on 14 December. When discussing the European sovereign debt crisis six of the candidates believed in the survival of the euro, while Soini and Väyrynen believed that the eurozone would dissolve in one way or another.[56] Väyrynen accused Lipponen and Niinistö of misleading the parliament, when Finland joined the common currency in the early years of the 2000s (when Lipponen and Niinistö were the leading figures of the government).[57] Soini was the only candidate to answer that as president he would address the issue of returning Finnish Karelia to Finland in discussions with the Russian government.[58] All candidates were opposed to Finland joining NATO, although for slightly differing reasons. Soini and Essayah underlined the importance of credible national defence, expressing concerns about defence cuts. Lipponen too was concerned about NATO membership's effects on the Defence Forces. Niinistö said that increasing security cooperation within the EU might make joining the NATO unnecessary in the long run. Biaudet stressed European defence as well, while Arhinmäki wanted to strengten the role of the UN.[59][60] EU issues were topmost in the YLE debate on 15 December as well.[61]

In a debate organised by Helsingin Sanomat and Nelonen on 17 January, the last day of advance voting, all candidates expressed concerns regarding the social marginalisation of the youth. All eight were also critical toward possible increases of Finland's guarantees in the European Financial Stability Facility, although Lipponen stressed the importance of European cooperation and Biaudet said that Finland should actively participate in the solving of the EU's debt problems. While seven candidates thought that the president's role in EU affairs is primarily supporting the cabinet led by the prime minister, Soini wanted to pursue more independent policies if elected. Niinistö, Haavisto, Arhinmäki and Biaudet were worried about the opinion polls' effect on tactical voting and were willing to ban the publishment of opinion polls two weeks prior to an election.[62]

In a second MTV3 debate on 18 January Lipponen accused Niinistö of hypocrisy, saying that although Niinistö has spoken against greediness he has also accepted funding from millionaires, who, according to Lipponen, have laid off thousands of workers. Arhinmäki attacked Niinistö over Niinistö's condemnation of illegal strikes, with Arhinmäki himself maintaining that there is no such a thing as an illegal strike. Niinistö defended himself against his critics, saying that everyone has to participate in common efforts to thwart the economic crisis and that labour disputes should be resolved within legal means.[63] Soini confronted Haavisto, saying that Haavisto's party, the Green League, wants to make people pay more for energy. Haavisto responded by slightly distancing himself from his party, saying that the election is about individual candidates instead of parties.[64]

The final debate prior to the first round was held by YLE on 19 January.[65] The candidates were asked to comment on former president Mauno Koivisto's statement, where Koivisto expressed concern over the continued curtailment of the president's formal power. Soini and Väyrynen shared Koivisto's concern and were willing to increase the president's powers, while the other six candidates were content with the current situation.[66] When discussing NATO Väyrynen and Arhinmäki accused Niinistö and Lipponen of being too favourable toward NATO membership. Niinistö and Lipponen denied these charges, with the latter dismissing them as "conspiracy theories".[67]

Second round

Journalists of YLE and Helsingin Sanomat found only small differences between Niinistö and Haavisto in the debates. Helsingin Sanomat wrote that on an YLE debate on 30 January "practically the only question" to bring out differences among the two was the stance on Finland's possible future membership in the UN Security Council: Niinistö said that, if a member, more active participation in peace keeping operations would be expected from Finland, while Haavisto emphasized civilian crisis management.[68] In another YLE debate on 2 February, enonomic issues showed some distinctions between the two candidates with Niinistö underlining the importance of economic growth and restraining the growth of debt and Haavisto expressing concerns about the impacts of economic growth on the environment and inequality.[69] Analysts Juhana Torkki and Pertti Timonen stated that both Niinistö an Haavisto tread carefully during the campaign prior to the runoff round, and that this campaign was less dramatic than the one prior to the first round.[70]

Opinion polling

First round
Poll source and date 2 Pekka Haavisto 3 Timo Soini 4 Paavo Väyrynen 5 Paavo Lipponen 6 Sauli Niinistö 7 Sari Essayah 8 Eva Biaudet 9 Paavo Arhinmäki
Research Insight Finland, 19 January 2012[71] 13% 6% 11% 4% 32% 2% 2% 3%
Taloustutkimus, 19 January 2012[72] 12% 6% 10% 5% 29% 2% 2% 4%
Research Insight Finland, 17 January 2012[73] 11 % 7 % 12 % 3 % 37 % 2 % 2 % 3 %
TNS Gallup, 17 January 2012[74] 17 % 9 % 17 % 6 % 39 % 3 % 2 % 9 %
MC-Info, 14 January 2012[75] 12 % 9 % 13 % 5 % 49 % 3 % 2 % 7 %
Taloustutkimus, 5 January 2012[76] 8,3 % 7 % 8,2 % 4 % 37 % 1 % 2 % 4 %
Research Insight Finland, 5 January 2012[77] 8 % 9 % 11 % 6 % 41 % 2 % 1 % 3 %
TNS Gallup, 3 January 2012[78] 7 % 9 % 9 % 7 % 38 % 2 % 2 % 4 %
MC-Info, 23 December 2011[79] 9 % 11 % 11 % 9 % 51 % 2,7 % 2,5 % 3,8 %
TNS Gallup, 17 December 2011[80] 6 % 11 % 9 % 6 % 43 % 2 % 4 % 5 %
Taloustutkimus, 15 December 2011[81] 6 % 7 % 9 % 5 % 40 % 2 % 3 % 3 %
Research Insight Finland, 2 December 2011[82] 6 % 6 % 7 % 6 % 43 % 1 % 3 % 3 %
TNS Gallup, 29 November 2011[83] 5 % 9 % 8 % 7 % 41 % 2 % 3 % 4 %
Taloustutkimus, 18 November 2011[84] 6 % 8 % 8 % 7 % 49 % 1 % 3 % 3 %
TNS Gallup, 15 November 2011[85] 6 % 11 % 10 % 7 % 44 % 1 % 3 % 3 %
Research Insight Finland, 9 November 2011[86] 6 % 9 % 6 % 5 % 47 % 1 % 2 % 1 %
TNS Gallup, 18 October 2011[87] 6 % 8 % 6 % 7 % 50 % 2 % 3 % 2 %
Research Insight Finland, 1 October 2011[88] 6 % 11 % 8 % 11 % 49 % 1 % 2 % 2 %
Taloustutkimus, 1 October 2011[89] 6 % 9 % 6 % 7 % 62 % 5 % 3 %
Taloustutkimus, 17 September 2011[90] 6 % 8 % 8 % 12 % 54 % 4 % 4 %
TNS Gallup, 29 August 2011[91] 5 % 6 % 9 % 49 %
Research Insight Finland, 17 August 2011[92] 3 % 7 % 1 % 12 % 51 % 1 % 2 %
Taloustutkimus, 3 August 2011[93] 6 % 11 % 60 % 4 %
Taloustutkimus, 21 May 2011[94] 3 % 4 % 45 %
Taloustutkimus, 30 April 2011[95] 8 % 56,8 %
Taloustutkimus, 2 December 2010[96] 5 % 11 % 56 % 3 %
TNS Gallup, 8 August 2010[97] 4 % 9 % 43 % 3 %
Taloustutkimus, 6 February 2010[98] 45 %
Taloustutkimus, 21 January 2010[99] 2 % 4,0 % 41,5 %
Taloustutkimus, 9 August 2009[100] 3 % 1 % 3 % 41 %
Taloustutkimus, January 2009[101] 3,1 % 1,1 % 2,9 % 44,3 % 0,8 %
Research Insight Finland, 3 January 2009[102] <2 % 6 % 3 % 32 %
Taloustutkimus, July 2008[101] 2,7 % 4,0 % 37,3 % 2,0 %
TNS Gallup, 21 June 2007[103] 6 % 32 % 1 %

Note: the Taloustutkimus polls in 2011 before November as well as the MC-Info polls and TNS Gallup poll on 17 January omitted those interviewees who could not choose a candidate.[104][105][106][107]

Second round
Poll source and date 2 Pekka Haavisto 6 Sauli Niinistö
Taloustutkimus, 2 February[108] 38% 62%
Research Insight Finland, 1 February[109] 37% 63%
TNS Gallup, 31 January[110] 36% 64%
Research Insight Finland, 27 January 2012[111] 36% 64%
MC-Info, 25 January 2012[112] 35% 65%

Election

The first round of the election was held in on 22 January. 32.7 percent of eligible voters cast their vote during the advance voting period between 11 and 17 January.[113] The overall voter turnout in the first round was 72.8%.[114]

In the second round, 36.6% of votes were cast during the advance voting period between 25 and 31 January.[115] The overall turnout in the second round was 68.8%. More votes were cast during the advance voting than on the election day.[116]

Result

No candidate received a majority of votes in the first round. With 37.0% of the vote, Sauli Niinistö won the first round and faced off against Pekka Haavisto, who got 18.8% of the votes, in the second round, which was held on 5 February. Niinistö won the second round and was thus elected as president.[117][4][118][119]

Template:Finnish presidential election, 2012

Reactions

First round

Of the six candidates defeated on the first round, Väyrynen was the only one not to express his support for either of the second round candidates. Soini and Essayah backed Niinistö, while Lipponen, Arhinmäki and Biaudet supported Haavisto.[120]

Mikael Jungner, the party secretary of the Social Democratic Party, said that he would not continue in his role due to the poor showing of Lipponen.[121]

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