2023 New Zealand general election: Difference between revisions

2023 New Zealand general election

← 2020 14 October 2023
← outgoing members elected members →
All 120 seats in the House of Representatives 61 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Chris Hipkins Christopher Luxon David Seymour Party Labour National ACT Leader since 22 January 2023 30 November 2021 4 October 2014 Leader's seat Remutaka Botany Epsom Last election 65 seats, 50.01% 33 seats, 25.58% 10 seats, 7.58% Current seats 62 34 10 Seats needed 27 51   ma‾-o•ri Leader James Shaw Marama Davidson Debbie Ngarewa-Packer Rawiri Waititi Party Green Te Pāti Māori Leader since 30 May 2015 8 April 2018 15 April 2020 28 October 2020 Leader's seat List List Waiariki Last election 10 seats, 7.86% 2 seats, 1.17% Current seats 9 2 Seats needed 52 59
Incumbent Prime Minister Chris Hipkins Labour

The 2023 New Zealand general election to determine the composition of the 54th Parliament of New Zealand is planned to be held on 14 October 2023, after the currently elected 53rd Parliament is dissolved or expires. Voters will elect 120 members to the unicameral New Zealand House of Representatives under the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 72 members will be elected from single-member electorates and 48 members from closed party lists.

At the 2020 election, the centre-left Labour Party, led by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, won an outright majority in the House, the first time under MMP that a party has been able to form a government without needing the support of another party. Nonetheless, Labour formed a co-operation agreement with the Green Party. The main opponent to the Labour government is the centre-right National Party, led by Christopher Luxon, along with ACT New Zealand and Te Pāti Māori.

The previous general election held on 17 October 2020 resulted in a majority for the Labour Party, winning 65 seats, allowing them to continue the Sixth Labour Government unrestricted in the 53rd Parliament. Their coalition partner from the 52nd Parliament, New Zealand First, did not receive enough votes to pass the five percent threshold or win in an electorate, removing them from Parliament. Confidence and supply partner the Green Party received 10 seats, up two, becoming the first minor party ever to increase their share of the vote following a term in government. In the opposition, the National Party lost 23 seats, giving them a total of 33, and ACT New Zealand went from one seat to ten. Te Pāti Māori won a Māori electorate and gained an additional list seat, returning to Parliament after a one-term absence, having lost all seats in the 2017 election.^[1]

In a by-election held on 10 December 2022 National gained one seat from Labour.^[2]

New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties that meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first-past-the-post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 48 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list.^[3] If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.^[4]

The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, no party had won enough votes to win an outright majority of seats, until the landslide 2020 Labour victory, which gave them 65 seats. When no party has commanded a majority, parties have had to negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.^[5]

With 120 seats, or 121 seats (with an overhang of one seat), a party, coalition, or minority government with confidence and supply support requires 61 seats for a majority. When there are two overhang seats in Parliament, 62 seats is required; this has happened only once. The Māori Party had two overhang seats in 2008, and one in 2005 and 2011. While other parties have returned to Parliament with less than 5% of the party vote by winning an electorate seat (e.g. ACT in 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017), this did not result in overhang seats.

Electorate boundaries for the election will be the same as at the 2020 election, with 65 general electorates (49 in the North Island and 16 in the South Island), and 7 Māori electorates. Boundaries are due to be redrawn in 2024, after the 2023 census.^[6]

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years.^[7] The previous election was held on 17 October 2020.

The governor-general must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current parliament. Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2020 election were returned on 20 November 2020;^[8] as a result, the 53rd Parliament must dissolve no later than 20 November 2023. Writs must be issued within seven days,^[9] so the last day for issuance of the writs is 27 November 2023. Writs must be returned within 60 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount, death of a candidate, or emergency adjournment),^[10] which would be 26 January 2024. Because polling day must be a Saturday,^[10] and ten days is required for the counting of special votes,^[11] the last possible date for the next election to be held is 13 January 2024.^[12]

However, it is widely accepted by political commentators, news media and the Electoral Commission that the next election will be held in late 2023.^{[13][14][15][16][17][18]} News website Stuff, as part of its annual political predictions, predicted that the election would be in November so as not to coincide with the New Zealand co-hosted 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, which finishes in August, and the 2023 Men's Rugby World Cup, which finishes in October.^[19]

On 19 January 2023, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced Saturday 14 October 2023 as the election date.^[20] The indicative schedule for the election is as follows:^[21]

Political parties registered with the Electoral Commission can contest the general election as a party. To register, parties must have at least 500 financial members, an auditor, and an appropriate party name.^[23] A registered party may submit a party list to contest the party vote, and can have a party campaign expenses limit in addition to limits on individual candidates' campaigns. Unregistered parties and independents can contest the electorate vote only.^[24]

Since the 2020 election, six parties have been deregistered: Mana on 5 May 2021,^[25] Advance New Zealand on 19 August 2021,^[26] Sustainable NZ on 15 December 2021,^[27] New Zealand TEA Party on 21 September 2022,^[28] New Zealand Social Credit Party on 28 February 2023,^[29] and Heartland New Zealand on 22 June 2023.^[30]

On 18 January 2023, The New Zealand Herald reported that the National Party had raised NZ$2.3 million from 24 big donors in 2022 to fund their 2023 election campaign. The ACT Party raised NZ$1.1 million in large donations in 2022. By comparison, the incumbent Labour Party had raised $150,000 during that same period including a $50,000 donation from the family of Les Mills gym owner Phillip Mills. The Green Party raised $122,000 through personal contributions from co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson. The New Zealand First party received a $35,000 donation from Tom Bowker.^[50]

By 1 May, the Christchurch-based Weft Knitting company had donated $100,000 to the Green Party, at the time the largest single election donation in 2023.^[51]

By 23 June, the Green Party had received a total of about $500,000 in donations, including a $50,000 donation from film director James Cameron and his wife Suzy Amis Cameron, and another $50,000 donation from actress Lucy Lawless. In addition, the Labour Party received a total of $458,000 in donations. The ACT, National, and New Zealand First parties also raised a total of $1.15 million, about $700,000, and $517,000 in big donations respectively. Property developer Trevor Farmer also donated $50,000 to the National Party, $200,000 to ACT, and $50,000 to New Zealand First. Other notable wealthy donors to the National Party have included philanthropists Brendan and Jo Lindsay (who donated $100,000), and Jeffrey Douglas ($51,000).^[52]

During the regulated period prior to election day, parties and candidates have limits on how much they may spend on election campaigning. The limits are updated every year to reflect inflation. It is illegal in New Zealand to campaign on election day itself, or within 10 metres of an advance polling booth.^[53]

For the 2023 general election, every registered party contending the party vote is permitted to spend $1,388,000 plus $32,600 per electorate candidate on campaigning during the regulated period, excluding radio and television campaigning (broadcasting funding is allocated separately). For example, a registered party with candidates in all 72 electorates is permitted to spend $3,735,200 on campaigning for the party vote. Electorate candidates are permitted to spend $32,600 each on campaigning for the electorate vote.^[54]

Registered parties are allocated a separate broadcasting budget for radio and television campaigning. Only money from the broadcasting allocation can be used to purchase airtime; production costs can come from the general election expenses budget. The Electoral Commission determines how much broadcasting funding each party gets, set out by part 6 of the Broadcasting Act 1989. The allocation is based a number of factors including the number of seats in the current Parliament, results of the previous general election and any by-elections since, and support in opinion polls.^[55]

On 31 May Freedoms New Zealand and two of its component parties, the NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party and Vision New Zealand, challenged the Electoral Commission's decision to allocate broadcasting funds to them collectively rather than as individual political parties. The Electoral Commission had decided to allocate broadcasting funds to them collectively on the basis that they were a "group of parties" that had joined forces. The plaintiffs argued that the Broadcasting Act 1989 did not clearly define what was a "group of parties" and that the Electoral Commission had not published clear criteria for how their parties had joined forces.^[56] On 17 July 2023, the High Court dismissed the case.^[57]

Third-party promoters, such as trade unions and lobby groups, can campaign during the regulated period. The maximum expense limit for the election is $391,000 for those promoters registered with the Electoral Commission, and $15,700 for unregistered promoters.^[54]

As of 21 July 2023^[update], the following third-party promoters were registered for the general election:^[58]

• New Zealand Council of Trade Unions
• Democracy Action Inc
• Forest & Bird
• Greenpeace Aotearoa
• Groundswell NZ
• Hobson's Pledge
• Living Juicy Ltd
• New Zealand Nurses Organisation
• NZEI Te Riu Roa
• Oxfam Aotearoa
• The S.B. Group
• New Zealand Taxpayers' Union
• Vote for Better Ltd

On 17 May, the Labour Party government attacked National's record on healthcare.^[59] On 27 May, Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni launched Labour's first election policy: to keep the superannuation age at 65 years and above.^[60][61] On 28 May, Hipkins announced Labour's second election promise: that it would retain the Apprenticeship Boost scheme.^[62]

On 12 July, Hipkins ruled out introducing a capital gains tax if Labour was re-elected to Government.^[63] On 16 July, Labour launched its election campaign and unveiled its election slogan "In It For You." Hipkins also campaigned on cutting inflation, reducing living costs, public safety, and investing in education, health and housing.^[64]

On 17 July, Labour introduced its youth crime package which included building two "high-needs units" within existing youth justice residences in Auckland and Christchurch, improving safety and security at youth justice residences, focusing on crime prevention measures including family group conferences, and empowering Family Courts to require youth offenders to perform community service including cleaning graffiti and rubbish disposal.^[65] That same week, the Labour Government announced several justice policies including introducing legislation to punish adults convicted of influencing young people to commit crimes, making the publishing of recordings of criminal behaviour on social media an aggravating factor in sentencing, making ram-raiding a criminal offence with a ten-year sentence and allowing 12 and 13-year old ram raiders to be tried in Youth Courts.^[66][67]

The National Party has not run candidates in Māori electorates since the 2002 election. In 2019, list MP Jo Hayes expressed a desire to contest Te Tai Hauāuru;^[68] Leader Judith Collins stated her support in July 2020, but said it would not be possible for the 2020 election due to time constraints.^[69] After the election, Collins affirmed the party's intent to contest Māori electorates in 2023.^[70][71] After Christopher Luxon replaced Collins as leader, he confirmed that these plans would continue,^[72] but stated that it was a "pragmatic" move and that he felt Māori electorates were incompatible with the principle of "one person, one vote".^[73] List MP Harete Hipango was the first confirmed candidate, announced in April 2023 to be contesting Te Tai Hauāuru.^[74]

In May 2023, Luxon confirmed that National would not work with Te Pāti Māori if it formed the next government after the 2023 election, citing National's disagreement with the party's support for co-governance in public services and alleged separatism.^[75][76]

On 23 May, a National spokesperson admitted the party had been using images created by artificial intelligence in some of their attack ads on social media, while Luxon was unaware of this.^[77][78] In June, the party removed numerous videos featuring movie and television content from their TikTok account after Newshub contacted studios about whether National was breaching their copyright.^[79]

On 11 June, National announced that it would end New Zealand's ban on genetic modification and establish a national biotechnology regulator if elected into government.^[80] On 18 June, National announced that it would make gang membership an aggravating factor in criminal sentencing.^[81] On 25 June, National unveiled several law and order policies including limiting sentencing discounts, scrapping "cultural reports" and the Government's "prisoner reduction" target, and boosting investment in victim support funding and rehabilitation programmes for remand prisoners.^[82]

In early July, the National Party campaigned on building a new medical school at the University of Waikato to address the national shortage of doctors and reversing the Labour Government's cuts to the replacement Dunedin Hospital.^[83][84] On 16 July, Luxon confirmed that National's election slogan would be "Get our country back on track". He also announced that National would create a NZ$500 million fund for repairing both state highways and local roads.^[85][86]

The Green Party will campaign on climate change, housing, inequality, tax reform, and the cost of living.^[87] On 20 May, the Greens released their finalised list of 31 candidates, which excluded Elizabeth Kerekere, who left the party to sit as an independent MP until the election whereupon she will retire.^[88] Following the success of Chlöe Swarbrick's 2020 Auckland Central campaign, the Green Party is running three additional "two tick" campaigns in this election; Ricardo Menéndez March in Mount Albert, Julie Anne Genter in Rongotai, and Tamatha Paul in Wellington Central.^[89]

In June 2023, the Greens announced they would be introducing various wealth and taxation proposals including tax cuts for anyone earning below NZ$125,000, a minimum income guarantee of NZ$385 per week, a wealth tax on assets worth above NZ$2 million, a 1.5% trust tax, a 45% top income tax rate, and a corporate tax rate of 33%.^[90]

In early July 2023, the Greens announced their "Pledge to Renters." Key provisions included imposing rent controls on landlords, introducing a rental "warrant of fitness," providing a government underwrite for housing providers, accelerating the public housing building programme, and creating a national register for all landlords and property managers.^[91] On 9 July, the party announced its election manifesto. Key provisions include establishing a new climate change ministry, expanding the criteria for carbon emissions, decriminalising drugs, boosting the refugee intake to 5,000, introducing rent controls, and building 35,000 new public homes.^[92]

On 17 July, the Greens launched their Hoki Whenua Mai policy. Key provisions include introducing legislation to return all confiscated land to the indigenous Māori people, removing a 2008 deadline for Treaty of Waitangi breaches, and establishing a process for privately-owned land.^[93] On 23 July, the Greens formally launched their election campaign along with the slogan "The Time Is Now" and a new campaign video.^[94]

ACT has campaigned against gun control.^[95] Contrary to the Greens, ACT leader David Seymour has said that he believes it's inequitable for a small portion of New Zealand's population to bear a substantial share of the country's tax revenue.^[96] In late April, ACT confirmed that it would be running "two-ticks" campaigns for both Seymour and Deputy Leader Brooke Van Velden in Auckland's Epsom and Tāmaki electorates.^[97]

The party launched its campaign on 4 June 2023, with Seymour announcing a policy to create a new "Ministry of Regulation" to police red tape and introduce a new law to ensure that regulation is underpinned by law-making principles.^[98] On 9 July, ACT vowed to lower the youth justice age back to 17 years. In 2016, the previous National Government had raised the youth justice age to 18 years, with 17 year olds being tried in youth courts for most offenses except serious offenses such as murder, sexual assault, aggravated robbery, arson, and serious assaults. ^[99] On 16 July, ACT released their finalised list of 55 candidates, with notable newcomers including former Federated Farmers president Andrew Hoggard and former National MP Parmjeet Parmar.^[100]

Labour minister Meka Whaitiri defected to Te Pāti Māori on 3 May 2023.^[101] On 15 June, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rāwiri Waititi released a Facebook video targeted towards Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon, calling for the pair to "shut their mouths and stop using our iwi as a political football to score points", in regards to the tangihanga of Steven Taiatini, who was the Ōpōtiki president of the Mongrel Mob Barbarians. Waititi is of the Te Whakatōhea iwi. Both Hipkins and Luxon objected to Waititi's comments, citing concerns of safety.^[102]

Te Pāti Māori launched its election campaign at Te Whānau O Waipareira's Matariki event in Henderson, Auckland. Waititi and fellow co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer led the event, which featured a music concert. The party campaigned on advancing the interests of the Māori people, combating racism, and the "second-rate" status of Māori, as Ngarewa-Packer labeled it.^[103] During the campaign launch, a man attempted to assault Waititi but was removed by security. The man was later given a warning for disorderly conduct and resisting police.^[104]

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters says if NZ First is elected to government, New Zealand First would remove Māori names from government departments and bring back English names.^{[105][106][107][108]} The party has also resisted changes to the age of eligibility for Superannuation.^[109] Additionally, New Zealand First is against vaccine mandates and proposes that gang affiliation should automatically serve as an aggravating factor in crime sentencing.^[110]

On 23 July, NZ First launched its election campaign with the slogan "Take our country back." Peters announced that the party would campaign on five key issues: combating so-called "racist separatism," fighting Australian-owned banks and the "supermarket duopoly," investing in health, social services, and elderly care, and adopting "tough on crime" policies including building a "gang prison"and designating all gangs as terrorist organisations.^[111]

The Opportunities Party aligns with the Greens on various policy fronts, including the endorsement of Universal Basic Income (UBI)^[112] and for a more progressive tax system. The proposed tax reforms include implementing an income tax rate of 45% for individuals earning over $250,000 per year, while those earning less than $15,000 per year would be exempt from income tax completely.^[113] On 16 June, during a Q&A Wellington Central candidate Natalia Albert, although acknowledging the similarities, said one key divergence from the Greens was that they were open to forming a coalition with either National or ACT.^{[citation needed]}

To secure a place in Parliament, The Opportunities Party is primarily banking on their leader Raf Manji's potential victory in the Ilam electorate.^[114][115]

Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–present) for the 2023 general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Kantar Public (formerly known as Colmar Brunton) and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan Research, and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.^[116]

On 19 November 2022, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters ruled out a coalition with Labour, claiming "No one gets to lie to me twice".^[117] In April 2023, National leader Christopher Luxon commented that it would be "highly unlikely" that National would form a government with Te Pāti Māori or the Greens; however, a spokesperson later clarified Luxon had not "intended to fully rule out working" with either party. At the time, Te Pāti Māori was largely seen as the kingmaker in the upcoming election.^[118] Furthermore, Te Pāti Māori may not be prepared to support a National-led government that includes the ACT Party, as Te Pāti Māori has repeatedly accused the ACT Party of race baiting over co-governance and its calls for a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi.^[119] On 10 May, Luxon officially ruled out forming a coalition with Te Pāti Māori.^[120] On 27 August, Labour leader Chris Hipkins ruled out New Zealand First as a possible coalition partner.^[121]

• Elections in New Zealand

• Electoral Commission website