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Hurricane Harvey

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This article is about the Atlantic hurricane of 2017. For other storms of the same name, see Tropical Storm Harvey.

Hurricane Harvey is an active tropical cyclone that is causing unprecedented and catastrophic flooding in southeastern Texas, and was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Wilma in 2005, ending a record 12-year period with no hurricanes of Category 3 intensity or higher making landfall in the United States. In a four-day period, many areas received more than 40 inches (1,000 mm) of rain as the system meandered over eastern Texas and adjacent waters. With peak accumulations of 51.88 in (1,318 mm), Harvey is the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the contiguous United States. The resulting floods prompted more than 13,000 rescues, displaced more than 30,000 people, and inundated hundreds of thousands of homes.

Tropical Depression Harvey
Current storm status
Tropical depression (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:10:00 p.m. CDT August 30 (03:00 UTC August 31)
Location:31°42′N 92°18′W / 31.7°N 92.3°W / 31.7; -92.3 (Tropical Depression Harvey) ± 25 nm
About 30 mi (50 km) NNE of Alexandria, LA
About 100 mi (160 km) SE of Shreveport, LA
Sustained winds:30 kn (35 mph; 55 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 40 kn (45 mph; 75 km/h)
Pressure:998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg)
Movement:NNE at 8 kn (9 mph; 15 km/h)
See more detailed information.

The eighth named storm, third hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, Harvey developed from a tropical wave to the east of the Lesser Antilles, reaching tropical storm status on August 17. The storm crossed through the Windward Islands on the following day, passing just south of Barbados and later near Saint Vincent. Upon entering the Caribbean Sea, Harvey began to weaken due to moderate wind shear and degenerated into a tropical wave north of Colombia early on August 19. The remnants were monitored for regeneration as it continued west-northwestward across the Caribbean and the Yucatán Peninsula, before redeveloping over the Bay of Campeche on August 23. Harvey then began to rapidly intensify on August 24, regaining tropical storm status and becoming a hurricane later that day. While the storm moved generally northwest, Harvey's intensification phase stalled slightly overnight from August 24–25, however Harvey soon resumed strengthening and became a Category 4 hurricane late on August 25. Hours later, Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas, at peak intensity.

Harvey has caused at least 27 confirmed deaths; 1 in Guyana, and 26 in the United States. Catastrophic inland flooding is ongoing in the Greater Houston area. FEMA director Brock Long called Harvey the worst disaster in Texas history, and expected the recovery to take many years.[1] Preliminary estimates of economic losses range from $10 billion to $160 billion,[2] with a large portion of losses sustained by uninsured homeowners.

Meteorological history

 
Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
  Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

Early on August 13, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring a tropical wave on the western coast of Africa. Amid favorable environmental conditions, the wave was expected to merge with a broad area of low pressure southwest of Cape Verde and gradually organize thereafter.[3] Instead, the two disturbances remained separate, with the broad trough continuing westward and the tropical wave moving farther north.[4] On August 17, shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the trough began to show signs of organization,[5] while high-resolution satellite showed an increasingly defined low-level circulation.[6] As such, the NHC initiated advisories on a potential tropical cyclone, allowing tropical storm watches and warnings to be hoisted for portions of the Lesser Antilles.[7] An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft deployed to the disturbance later that afternoon found a well-defined center and tropical storm-force winds, prompting the NHC to upgrade it to Tropical Storm Harvey at 21:00 UTC.[8]

NOAA flying through the eye of the storm on August 24

Following its designation, the cyclone moved swiftly westward into the Caribbean Sea under the influence of an expansive ridge of high pressure to its north. An environment of moderate wind shear complicated the forecast of the storm's intensity, with global forecast models suggesting dissipation in the central Caribbean, whereas statistical and hurricane models suggested the potential for Harvey to be near hurricane strength in later days.[8] Over the next day, the storm changed little in structure, remaining poorly organized with its low-level center on the eastern edge of associated deep convection.[9] Harvey's presentation began to deteriorate early on August 19; its convective pattern became elongated while the circulation became less defined. In fact, a reconnaissance aircraft was unable to find a loosely-closed circulation at 850 mb (4,781 ft), though it did locate one at lower levels.[10] Harvey was downgraded to a tropical depression at 21:00 UTC on August 19;[11] six hours later, based on continued data from a reconnaissance aircraft, it was declared an open tropical wave.[12] Early on August 20, the NHC began monitoring the remnants of Harvey for redevelopment. Although the effects of strong upper-level winds and dry air were expected to limit development in the near-term, conditions were expected to become more conducive to tropical storm and hurricane conditions when the disturbance entered the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and especially in the Bay of Campeche.[13] Despite an increase in convective organization, the disturbance still lacked a well-defined center as it approached the Yucatán Peninsula.[14] While traversing inland, satellite images and surface observations indicated that the circulation became better defined.[15] A reconnaissance aircraft investigating the remnants of Harvey around 15:00 UTC on August 23 indicated that it once again acquired a well-defined center, and the NHC upgraded it to a tropical depression accordingly.[16] The system began to slowly consolidate amid an increasingly favorable environment,[17] attaining tropical storm intensity by 06:00 UTC on August 24.[18]

 
Harvey as a hurricane on August 24

Later that morning, Harvey began to undergo rapid intensification as an eye developed and its central pressure quickly fell.[19] By 17:00 UTC, the storm was upgraded to the third hurricane of the season.[20] Slight entrainment of dry air slowed the intensification process, however, by the next day, Harvey was able to quickly strengthen into a major hurricane[nb 1] by 19:00 UTC.[21] Further deepening occurred as the storm approached the coast of Texas, with Harvey becoming a Category 4 hurricane at 23:00 UTC, based on reconnaissance aircraft data.[22] Around 03:00 UTC on August 26, the hurricane made landfall at peak intensity at Rockport with winds of 130 mph (215 km/h) and an atmospheric pressure of 938 mbar (27.7 inHg).[23] Harvey became the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Wilma in 2005 and the strongest in terms of wind speed to hit the country since Charley in 2004. It was the first hurricane to strike Texas since Ike in 2008,[24] the first major hurricane in the state since Bret in 1999, and the strongest in Texas since Carla in 1961.[25]

After striking land, the storm moved over the Copano Bay and made a second landfall in Texas just north of Holiday Beach at 06:00 UTC on August 26 as a Category 3 hurricane.[26]Afterwards, rapid weakening ensued as its speed slowed dramatically to a crawl, and weakened to a tropical storm at 18:00 UTC on August 26.[27]

Current storm information

As of 10:00 p.m. CDT August 30 (3:00 UTC August 31), Tropical Depression Harvey is located within 25 nautical miles of 31°42′N 92°18′W / 31.7°N 92.3°W / 31.7; -92.3 (Harvey), about 30 miles (50 km) north-northeast of Alexandria, Louisiana, and about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Shreveport, Louisiana. Maximum sustained winds are 30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h), with gusts to 40 knots (45 mph; 75 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 998 millibars (hPa; 29.47 inHg). The system is moving north-northeast at 8 knots (9 mph; 15 km/h).

For latest official information, see:

Preparations

Caribbean and Latin America

 
Tropical Storm Harvey in the Eastern Caribbean on August 18

Tropical cyclone warnings and watches for the Windward Islands were issued starting at 15:00 UTC on August 17, about six hours before Harvey developed. At that time, a tropical storm watch was posted for Dominica, while a tropical storm warning became in effect in Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.[7] All watches and warnings were discontinued by late on August 18, as the storm continued westward into the Caribbean.[28]

In Honduras, a green alert was issued for the Atlántida, Islas de la Bahía, Colón, Cortés, Gracias a Dios, Olancho, and Yoro departments. About 7.87 in (200 mm) of precipitation was expected along the coast, while inland areas were forecast to receive 2.76 to 3.15 in (70 to 80 mm) of rain.[29] As the remnants of Harvey approached Mexico, the Civil Protection Secretary of the state of Campeche issued a blue alert, indicting minimal danger.[30] When Harvey redeveloped at 15:00 UTC on August 23, the Government of Mexico issued a tropical storm watch in Tamaulipas from Boca De Catan to the mouth of the Rio Grande.[31] The watch remained in effect until 21:00 UTC on August 25, after it became evident that the storm no longer posed a significant threat to that area.[32]

United States

President Donald Trump remained in contact with Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards, and received a briefing from acting Secretary of Homeland Security Elaine Duke, Homeland Security Advisor Tom Bossert, White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly, and Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Brock Long. FEMA worked with the Coast Guard, Customs and Border Protection, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement to prepare for the storm and its aftermath. The agency placed disaster response teams on standby at emergency posts in Austin, Texas, and Baton Rouge, Louisiana.[33]

Video briefings by officials

Texas

 
Members of the Texas National Guard, local police, and firefighters coordinating relief efforts

Upon the NHC resuming advisories for Harvey at 15:00 UTC on August 23, a hurricane watch was issued in Texas from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass, while a tropical storm watch was posted from Port Mansfield south to the mouth of the Rio Grande and from San Luis Pass to High Island. Additionally, a storm surge watch became in effect from Port Mansfield to High Island.[31] Additional watches and warnings were posted in these areas at 09:00 UTC on August 24, with a hurricane warning from Port Mansfield to Matagorda; a tropical storm warning from Matagorda to High Island; a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande; a storm surge warning from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass; and a storm surge from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande.[34] The watches and warnings were adjusted accordingly after Harvey moved inland and began weakening, with the warning discontinued at 15:00 UTC on August 26.[35] By 09:00 UTC on the following day, only a tropical storm warning and a storm surge warning remained in effect from Port O'Connor to Sargent. However, watches and warnings were re-issued as Harvey began to re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, and beginning at 15:00 UTC on August 28, a tropical storm warning was in effect for the entire Gulf Coast of Texas from High Island northward.[36]

Governor Greg Abbott declared a state of emergency for 30 counties on August 23, while mandatory evacuations were issued for Brazoria, Calhoun, Jackson, Refugio, San Patricio, and Victoria counties, as well as parts of Matagorda County.[37] On August 26, Governor Abbott added an additional 20 counties to the state of emergency declaration.[38] Furthermore, the International Charter on Space and Major Disasters was activated by the USGS on behalf of the Governor's Texas Emergency Management Council, including the Texas Division of Emergency Management, thus providing for humanitarian satellite coverage.[39]

Louisiana

In Louisiana, Governor John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency for the entire state. A mandatory evacuation was ordered in Cameron Parish for the cities of Big Lake, Cameron, Creole, Grand Chenier, Hackberry, Holly Beach, and Johnson Bayou. Additionally, a voluntary evacuation was ordered in Vermilion Parish for low-lying areas south of State Highway 14. The Louisiana National Guard prepared about 500,000 sandbags and emergency boats and high-water-rescue vehicles were placed on standby should flooding occur. In New Orleans, there were concerns about whether or not the city's drainage system could handle a heavy rainfall event, with only 105 of the 120 water pumps being operational and some power turbines being out of service.[40] The city's public schools, as well as six universities and a medical school, closed on August 29.[41] As Harvey began re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico on August 28, the tropical storm warning in Texas from Mesquite Bay to High Island was extended eastward into Louisiana to the community of Cameron at 12:00 UTC, while a tropical storm watch was issued from Cameron to Intracoastal City.[36]

Effects in the Caribbean and Latin America

Winds left residents throughout Barbados without electricity, with a majority of outages occurring in Christ Church, Saint Joseph, Saint Lucy, and Saint Michael provinces. Flooding washed one house off its foundation, while water entered some houses, forcing some people to evacuate. Bridges in Saint Andrew and Saint Joseph were damaged. Additionally, a fuel depot in Speightstown was flooded. Winds deroofed a church.[42] In Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, nine homes were flooded and four others experienced wind damage. Additionally, a tree fell on a school, damaging the building. Blocked drains in Port Elizabeth resulted in more than 15 businesses being flooded. A total of 15 people were housed in shelters after the storm.[43]

Strong winds and heavy rainfall also affected Suriname and Guyana. In the former, high winds in the capital city of Paramaribo caused roof damage to the Presidential Palace and two homes, while the Torarica Hotel and Casino suffered structural impact. Additionally, four dwellings were deroofed in Commewijne and three others lost their roofs in Wanica; in the latter, the Ministry of Social Affairs building was damaged by falling trees. In Guyana, the village of Jawalla bore the brunt of the storm. Four homes were demolished, while five other residences and two shops were damaged. Several public buildings were also damaged, including the community center, the village council buildings, the nursery, and public schools. A 29-year-old woman died after her house collapsed on her.[43]

Effects in the United States

File:Heavy Toll in Houston, South Texas From Hurricane Harvey.webmhd.webm
Video report from Voice of America on August 30, 2017

Texas

Throughout Texas, more than 300,000 people were left without electricity and billions of dollars of property damage was sustained.[38] By August 29, approximately 13,000 people had been rescued across the state while an estimated 30,000 were displaced.[44] The refinery industry capacity was reduced, and oil and gas production was affected in the Gulf of Mexico and inland Texas.[45]

Landfall area

Coast Guard video during an overflight from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor, Texas, Aug. 26, 2017

Making landfall as a Category 4, Harvey inflicted tremendous damage across Aransas County.[46] Wind gusts were observed up to 132 mph (212 km/h) near Port Aransas.[47] In Rockport, entire blocks were leveled by the hurricane's winds. The city's courthouse was severely damaged when a cargo trailer was hurled into it, coming to a stop halfway through the structure. The gymnasium of the Rockport-Fulton High School lost multiple walls while the school itself suffered some damage.[46] A Fairfield Inn in the city was severely damaged.[48] One person died in a house fire in the city, unable to be rescued due to the extreme weather conditions.[49] As of August 28, an estimated 30–40 people remain unaccounted for across Aransas County, including 9 in Rockport. Nearly every structure in Port Aransas suffered damage.[46] By the afternoon of August 26, more than 20 in (510 mm) of rain had fallen in the Corpus Christi metropolitan area.[38] All of Victoria was left without water and most had no power.[46]

Houston metropolitan area flooding

Rainfall accumulation from August 23 through August 29. Animation by NASA

Many locations in the Houston metropolitan area observed at least 30 in (760 mm) of precipitation,[50] with a maximum of 51.88 in (1,318 mm) in Cedar Bayou.[51] This makes Harvey the wettest tropical cyclone on record for Texas, and the contiguous United States,[52] surpassing the previous rainfall record held by Tropical Storm Amelia.[53] The local National Weather Service office in Houston observed consecutive all-time daily rainfall accumulations on August 26 and 27, measured at 14.4 in (370 mm) and 16.08 in (408 mm) respectively.[54] During the storm, more than 800 Houston area flights were canceled, including 704 at George Bush Intercontinental Airport and 123 at William P. Hobby Airport. Both airports eventually closed.[55] Several tornadoes were spawned in the area, one of which damaged or destroyed the roofs of dozens of homes in Sienna Plantation.[38] As of August 29, 14 fatalities have been confirmed from flooding in the Houston area, including 6 from the same family who died when their van was swept off a flooded bridge.[56] A police officer drowned while trying to escape rising waters.[57]

 
Soldiers with the Texas Army National Guard move through flooded Houston streets as floodwaters from Hurricane Harvey continue to rise.

An estimated 25–30 percent of Harris County—roughly 444 mi2 (1,150 km2) of land—was submerged.[44]

File:MUST SEE! Watch Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 7 Sailors conduct a sear....webm
U.S. Navy Sailors conduct a search and rescue mission above a residence in Beaumont, Texas

Late on August 27, a mandatory evacuation was issued for all of Bay City as model projections indicated the downtown area would be inundated by 10 ft (3.0 m) of water. Flooding was anticipated to cut off access to the city around 1:00 p.m. CDT on August 28.[58] Evacuations took place in Conroe on August 28 following release of water from the Lake Conroe dam.[59] On the morning on August 29, a levee collapsed along Columbia Lakes in Brazoria County, prompting officials to urgently request everyone in the area evacuate.[60]

On August 28, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers began controlled water releases from Addicks and Barker Reservoirs in the Buffalo Bayou watershed in an attempt to manage flood levels in the immediate area. According to the local Corps commander, "It’s going to be better to release the water through the gates directly into Buffalo Bayou as opposed to letting it go around the end and through additional neighborhoods and ultimately into the bayou." At the time the releases started, the reservoirs had been rising at more than 6 inches (150 mm) per hour.[61] Many people begun evacuating the area, fearing a levee breach.[62] Despite attempts to alleviate the water rise, the Addicks Reservoir reached capacity on the morning of August 29 and began spilling out.[63] The NASA Johnson Space Center has been closed to employees and visitors due to the flooding until September 5. Only the critical mission control staff remain and reside in the control rooms to monitor procedures of the International Space Station.[64]

Deep East Texas and Beaumont–Port Arthur area

Anyone who chooses to not [evacuate] cannot expect to be rescued and should write their social security numbers in permanent marker on their arm so their bodies can be identified. The loss of life and property is certain. GET OUT OR DIE!

— Jacques Blanchette, Tyler County Emergency Management[65]

The Beaumont–Port Arthur metropolitan area also experienced torrential precipitation, including 32.55 in (827 mm) of rainfall in Beaumont.[50] Flooding to the north and east of the Houston area resulted in mandatory evacuations for portions of Liberty, Jefferson, and Tyler counties, while Jasper and Newton counties were under a voluntary evacuation.[66] One death occurred in Beaumont when a woman exited her disabled vehicle, but was swept away.[67] In Port Arthur, the mayor stated that the entire city was submerged by water. Hundreds of displaced residents went to the Robert A. "Bob" Bowers Civic Center for shelter, but they were evacuated again after the building began to flood. Water entered at least several hundreds of homes in Jefferson County.[68]

Louisiana

Heavy rainfall extended eastward into Louisiana, with the state recording up to 14.88 in (378 mm) of precipitation near the town of Iowa.[50] In Lake Charles, water reached 4 ft (1.2 m) in height, with homes flooded and hundreds of people forced to evacuate in one neighborhood alone. Throughout the state, about 500 people were rescued by August 28, while 269 people went to a shelter in southwest Louisiana, about 200 of whom were rescued from their homes.[69]

Energy production

Energy production in the Gulf of Mexico declined in the wake of Harvey by approximately 21% — 378,633 barrels per day of the 1.75 million barrels of oil produced each day. Natural gas production declined by about 25.71% — 827.89 million metric standard cubic meters per day (MMSCFD). The Eagle Ford Rock Formation (shale oil and gas) in southern Texas reduced production by 300,000 to 500,000 bpd, according to the Texas Railroad Commission. Many energy-related ports and terminals are closed, delaying about fourteen crude oil tankers. About 2.25 million bpd of refining capacity was offline for several days; that is about 12% of total US capacity, with refineries affected at Corpus Christi, and later Port Arthur and Beaumont, and Lake Charles, Louisiana. The price of Brent crude versus West Texas Intermediate crude oil achieved a split of U.S. $5.[70]

Two ExxonMobil refineries had to be shut down following related storm damage and releases of hazardous pollutants.[71] Arkema had to shutdown a chemical plant in Crosby, and evacuated workers, after cooling was compromised, possibly posing a fire or explosion threat.[72][73]

Athletics

The flooding in Houston from the storm required the preseason National Football League game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Houston Texans scheduled for August 31 to be moved from NRG Stadium in Houston to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.[74] The game was later cancelled to allow the Houston Texans players to return to Houston after the storm.[75] In addition, the Houston Astros were forced to move their August 29–31 series with the Texas Rangers from Minute Maid Park in Houston to Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.[76] The annual Texas Kickoff game that was to feature BYU and LSU to kick off the 2017 college football season was moved to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.[77] The NCAA FBS football game between Houston and UTSA was postponed due to the aftermath of the storm. It was originally scheduled for September 2 at the Alamodome in San Antonio and is expected to be rescheduled.[78]

Aftermath

'President Trump Participates in a Tour of the Emergency Operations Center' video from the White House

Texas

Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner imposed a mandatory curfew from 12 a.m. to 5 a.m. local time until further notice. He cited looting as the primary reason for the curfew.[79]

On August 29, President Trump, First Lady Melania Trump, and U.S. Senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz toured damage in the Corpus Christi metropolitan area.[80]

Texas Governor Greg Abbott deployed the state's entire National Guard for search and rescue, recovery, and clean up operations due to the devastating damage caused by the storm and resulting floods.[81][82] Other states' National Guard's have offered assistance, with several having already been sent.[83][84]

Damage estimates

File:Post-Harvey Rebuilding Expected to Cost More, Take Longer Because of Labor Shortage.webm
'Post-Harvey Rebuilding Expected to Cost More, Take Longer Because of Labor Shortage' video news report from Voice of America

A significant portion of the storm's damages may be uninsured losses. Regular homeowner insurance policies generally exclude coverage for flooding, as the National Flood Insurance Program underwrites most flood insurance policies in the US.[85][86] Although the purchase of flood insurance is obligatory for federally guaranteed mortgages for homes within the 100-year flood plain, enforcement of the requirement is difficult and many homes, even within the 100-year flood plain, lack flood insurance.[85] In Harris County, Texas—which includes the city of Houston—only 15% of homes have flood insurance policies issued by the NFIP. Participation in the NFIP is higher, but still low, in neighboring Galveston (41%), Brazoria (26%), and Chambers Counties (21%).[85]

Preliminary estimates of economic losses range anywhere from $10 billion to $50 billion.[87][88][89][90] Moody's Analytics has the estimate of between $40 billion to $50 billion in damages due to the storm.[91] According to weather analytics firm Planalytics, lost revenue to Houston area retailers and restaurants alone will be approximately $1 billion. The Houston area controls 4% of the spending power in the United States.[92]

Chemical Plant Near Houston

On August 30 2017, the CEO of Arkema warned one of its chemical plants in Crosby, Texas could explode or be subject to intense fire due to the loss of "critical refrigeration" of materials. The plant and the surrounding area have been evacuated. [93]

Environmental factors

The Geography of Houston places it in a low-lying part of the Gulf Coastal Plain, and its clay based soils provide poor drainage. The climate of Houston brings very heavy rainfall, which together with tidal flood events means that there have been repeated floods in the city ever since its founding in 1836, though the flood control district founded in 1947, aided by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, managed to prevent state-wide flooding for over fifty years. More recently, residents died in "historic flooding" in May 2015, and in the April 2016 "tax day floods".[94][95] There is a tendency for storms to move very slowly over the region, and drop huge amounts of rain over an extended period, as occurred during Tropical Storm Claudette in 1979, and Tropical Storm Allison in 2001.[96]

Climate change

Main article: Tropical cyclone § Climate change

In response to the record-breaking flooding from Harvey, climate scientists pointed out that the high amount of rains was attributable to increased temperatures.[97][98] According to officials from the Harris County Flood Control District, Harvey caused the third ‘500-year’ flood in three years. The National Climate Assessment states:[99][100]

The recent increases in activity are linked, in part, to higher sea surface temperatures in the region that Atlantic hurricanes form in and move through. Numerous factors have been shown to influence these local sea surface temperatures, including natural variability, human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases, and particulate pollution.

According to Kevin Trenberth, human impact could be responsible for as much as 30 percent of the hurricane's rainfall.[97] Michael E. Mann said that regional sea surface temperatures have risen around 0.5° C (0.9° F) in recent decades, allowing Harvey to strengthen more than expected which caused 3–5% more moisture in the atmosphere in accordance with the Clausius–Clapeyron relation.[101] Kenneth Kunkel from the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies pointed out that the water temperature of the Gulf of Mexico was above average for this time of the year, and likely also a factor in Harvey's impact.[102]

The slow movement of Harvey over Texas allowed the storm to drop prolonged heavy rains on the state, as has also happened with earlier storms.[96] Harvey's stalled position was due to weak prevailing winds linked to a greatly expanded subtropical high pressure system over much of the US at the time, that had pushed the jet stream to the north. Research and model simulations have indicated an association between this pattern and human-caused climate change.[101][103]

Coastal subsidence

Separately, sea level rise along the coast caused by global warming, combined with coastal subsidence caused by oil drilling, groundwater wells, or other activities, was also held responsible for exacerbating impacts, with a sea level rise of 6 inches (15 cm) in recent decades.[101][104]

Urban planning

The Katy Prairie in western Harris County, which once helped to absorb floodwaters in the region, has been reduced in size by 75% in the last several decades due to suburban development, and one analysis discovered that more than 7,000 housing units have been built within the 100-year floodplain in Harris County since 2010.[105]

See also

Other tropical cyclones with landfall in the same region of the Texas Gulf coast:

  • 1886 Indianola hurricane – Destroyed the burgeoning port city of Indianola
  • 1900 Galveston hurricane – Deadliest natural disaster in US history, impacting Galveston with unmitigated storm surge and killing as many as 12,000
  • 1932 Freeport hurricane – Rapidly intensifying Category 4 hurricane that brought heavy rainfall to the Angleton and Freeport areas
  • Hurricane Celia (1970) – Produced destructive winds in the Corpus Christi area
  • Hurricane Bret (1999) – Made landfall on a relatively underpopulated stretch of the Texas coast, ending a decade-long period without a major hurricane landfall on the state
  • Hurricane Ike (2008) – Made landfall on September 13, 2008, causing widespread destruction and flooding centered in the Galveston area. Houston was also damaged, but did not suffer flooding, as Ike did not stay put and moved on.

Notes

  1. ^ A major hurricane is a hurricane that ranks as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale.

References

  1. ^ Joel Achenbach (August 27, 2017). "FEMA director says Harvey is probably the worst disaster in Texas history". The Washington Post. Retrieved August 27, 2017.
  2. ^ Doyle Rice (August 30, 2017). "Harvey to be costliest natural disaster in U.S. history, with an estimated cost of $160 billion". USA Today.
  3. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (August 13, 2017). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  4. ^ Robbie J. Berg (August 15, 2017). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  5. ^ John P. Cangialosi (August 17, 2017). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  6. ^ John L. Beven II (August 17, 2017). Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  7. ^ a b John L. Beven II (August 17, 2017). Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  8. ^ a b John L. Beven II (August 17, 2017). Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 2 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  9. ^ John L. Beven II (August 18, 2017). Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 6 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center.
  10. ^ John L. Beven II (August 19, 2017). Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 9 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center.
  11. ^ John L. Beven II (August 19, 2017). Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 10 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  12. ^ Robbie J. Berg (August 19, 2017). Remnants of Harvey Discussion Number 11 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  13. ^ Daniel P. Brown (August 20, 2017). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  14. ^ Richard J. Pasch; Robbie J. Berg (August 20, 2017). "Special Tropical Weather Outlook". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  15. ^ Eric S. Blake (August 22, 2017). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  16. ^ Eric S. Blake (August 23, 2017). Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 12 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  17. ^ John L. Beven II (August 23, 2017). Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 14 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  18. ^ Lixion A. Avila (August 24, 2017). Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 14A (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  19. ^ Robbie J. Berg (August 23, 2017). Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 16 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  20. ^ Robbie J. Berg; Michael J. Brennan (August 24, 2017). Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
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