Bayesian (yacht)

Bayesian was a flybridge sloop designed by Ron Holland and built with a 56 m (184 ft) aluminium hull and a single-masted cutter rig. The 75 m (246 ft) aluminium mast was especially designed for the yacht and at the time of construction was the world's tallest. The yacht had a lifting keel, allowing its draft to be reduced from 10 m to 4 m.^[7] It was one of a number of similar vessels from the same designer and shipyard and was one of the world's largest sailing yachts. The yacht had a traditional aft cockpit and an additional 60 m² (650 sq ft) fully-encloseable cockpit forward. The interior was outfitted in Japanese style by the French company Rémi Tessier Design.^[8] The yacht was voted as best interior at the International Superyacht Society Awards 2008, and best sailing yacht over 45 m at the 2009 World Superyacht Awards.^[9]

The yacht, allocated IMO Number 9503392, was ordered by Dutch entrepreneur Eric Albada Jelgersma [nl] (1939–2018), but in 2005 he was paralysed in a yachting accident and it was sold on completion in 2008 to Dutch property developer John Groenewoud and named Salute.^[10][11][12] In November 2014, it was sold to Revtom Ltd., an Isle of Man company owned by Angela Bacares, wife of the technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch, and renamed Bayesian,^[10][12] a reference to Bayesian inference, which was used in statistical machine learning by Lynch's company Autonomy Corporation.^[13] From then, the yacht was registered in the United Kingdom, with London as port of registry. It was refitted in 2020 and was managed since 2022 by Camper & Nicholsons International, Geneva.^[10][12]

Lynch was celebrating his acquittal in his San Francisco fraud trial and had invited lawyers, friends and associates to join him, his wife and their daughter, on a cruise around Sicily. The Bayesian sank in the early morning of 19 August 2024 during a storm when anchored off Porticello (township of Santa Flavia), a small fishing village about 15 km (9.3 mi) east of Palermo, Sicily.^[14] After capsizing, the yacht quickly sank to a depth of 49 metres (161 ft).^[15]

The yacht had been carrying 10 crew and 12 passengers. Fifteen survivors were rescued by the nearby Sir Robert Baden Powell, a smaller Dutch schooner built in 1957, one body was recovered from the sea, while six people remained missing.^[16][14] Divers from the fire brigrade immediately began searching the wreck. The task was challenging on account of the depth, which limited divers to eight minutes to work on the wreck. They also found access to the cabins was blocked by furniture.^[14] Six bodies were eventually recovered from the interior of the yacht on 21, 22 and 23 August.^[17][18]

The fifteen survivors comprised Angela Bacares and five guests, captain James Cutfield and eight other members of the crew.^[19][20]

• Jonathan Bloomer, chairman of Morgan Stanley International and past chairman of Autonomy Corporation^[21]
• Judy Bloomer, wife of Jonathan Bloomer^[21]
• Mike Lynch, founder of Autonomy Corporation and Invoke Capital^[21]
• Hannah Lynch, daughter of Mike Lynch, who had recently finished at Latymer Upper School^[18]
• Christopher J. Morvillo, partner at Clifford Chance US LLP and Lynch's lawyer^[21]
• Neda Morvillo (née Nassiri),^[22] jewellery designer and wife of Christopher Morvillo^[21]
• Recaldo Thomas, yacht's chef^[21]

According to witnesses, the yacht was struck stationary and at anchor by a waterspout during a powerful storm.^[5] The type of storm is fuelled by warm water and sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea have been warmer than ever this year and reached a record high of about 30 degree Celsius around the time of the sinking.^[6]

There was soon speculation about what could have caused the yacht to sink so quickly, with suggestions on August 19, that hatches and doors might have been left open and allowed water to enter.^[5]

On August 20 a retired Royal Navy commander and defence commentator was quoted saying that "a crew is better off steering toward the anchor to stabilize the vessel or raising the anchor and heading out to sea to ride out the storm."^[6]

This was echoed by a Porticello fisherman, "[w]e all knew that a storm was coming and that during that night it was better to keep the boats inside the port. We all know each other, and we were saying this among ourselves". Giovanni Costantino, CEO of The Italian Sea Group, which owns Perini Navi, told Corriere della Sera that the crew should have known about the incoming storm from the weather forecast, and that there should have been a lookout who would have seen the storm coming. He said that, given the gathering storm, the yacht should not have been at anchor but under power and with the bow pointing into the wind, all apertures (including the stern hatch) should have been closed, the keel should have been fully lowered, and the occupants should not have been in their cabins but at the emergency assembly point.^[23][24] He also told Sky News that the yachts built by his firm have a structure and keel that make them "unsinkable bodies".^[25]

The chief prosecutor of nearby Termini Imerese, Ambrogio Cartosio, initiated a judicial investigation into the sinking.^[17] On 23 August, it was reported that investigators were considering manslaughter charges.^[18] As Bayesian was a UK-registered vessel, the Marine Accident Investigation Branch also opened an investigation into the causes of the sinking and sent a team of four inspectors to Italy.^[26][27]

The Italian Coastguard said on 22 August 2024 that the possible raising of the wreck was not on the current agenda, but would be considered later.^[28]