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Using Scan Statistics for Cluster Detection: Recognizing Real Bandwagons

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Abstract

Bandwagons are ubiquitous in social life. No one doubts that people vote at least sometimes for political candidates simply because they are winning and or embrace many fashions simply because they want to “follow the crowd.” But estimating how much a bourgeoning trend owes to pure “bandwagon effects” can be very difficult. Often other factors motivate the people taking action to an unknown degree. In this paper we investigate the use of two variable window scan statistics, the minimum P value scan statistic and the generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) statistic, to analyze one important form of the bandwagon problem. We show how these scan statistics can be used to detect the clustering of bandwagon events in a time interval. Once the events are identified, the information can be used to set boundaries on the extent of bandwagoning. The method is illustrated by reference to data on political contributions in the 2016 U.S. Senate elections.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Francis Bator and Joseph Glaz for helpful suggestions and the Institute for New Economic Thinking for support of the data collection.

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Correspondence to Jie Chen.

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Chen, J., Ferguson, T. & Jorgensen, P. Using Scan Statistics for Cluster Detection: Recognizing Real Bandwagons. Methodol Comput Appl Probab 22, 1481–1491 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11009-019-09737-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11009-019-09737-1

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