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Optimal timing of joint replacement using mathematical programming and stochastic programming models

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Abstract

The optimal timing for performing radical medical procedures as joint (e.g., hip) replacement must be seriously considered. In this paper we show that under deterministic assumptions the optimal timing for joint replacement is a solution of a mathematical programming problem, and under stochastic assumptions the optimal timing can be formulated as a stochastic programming problem. We formulate deterministic and stochastic models that can serve as decision support tools. The results show that the benefit from joint replacement surgery is heavily dependent on timing. Moreover, for a special case where the patient's remaining life is normally distributed along with a normally distributed survival of the new joint, the expected benefit function from surgery is completely solved. This enables practitioners to draw the expected benefit graph, to find the optimal timing, to evaluate the benefit for each patient, to set priorities among patients and to decide if joint replacement should be performed and when.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, SCE—Shamoon College of Engineering, Bialik/Basel Sts., Beer Sheva, 84100, Israel

    Baruch Keren

  2. Department of Management and Economics, The Open University of Israel, Raanana, Israel

    Baruch Keren

  3. Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, 84105, Israel

    Joseph S. Pliskin

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  1. Baruch Keren
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  2. Joseph S. Pliskin
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Correspondence to Baruch Keren.

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Keren, B., Pliskin, J.S. Optimal timing of joint replacement using mathematical programming and stochastic programming models. Health Care Manag Sci 14, 361–369 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-011-9172-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-011-9172-9

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