Abstract
This paper presents the GIS-based stochastic model and its application to simulate land use change in Shiqian County, Southwestern China. Transition probability of land use change with biophysical factors such as elevation, slope, distance to stream, distance to road and adjacent cells with the same land use are calculated and integrated into this model. Then the model simulated 2001 land use pattern based on 1988 land use pattern and the results are satisfactory. Finally, three different land use scenarios are simulated using this model. This study provides a new tool to predict land use pattern.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the key project (40335046) of National Natural Science Foundation of China and the research fund for the doctoral program of higher education (20040001038). The authors would express thanks to Dr. Li Junguo, Department of Computer Science, Peking University for modeling construction. The authors are also grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and helpful suggestions. However, any errors or shortcomings in the paper are the responsibility of the authors.
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Huang, Qh., Cai, Yl. Simulation of land use change using GIS-based stochastic model: the case study of Shiqian County, Southwestern China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 21, 419–426 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-006-0074-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-006-0074-1