SPM.1: Figure 1 of the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

The IPCC Special Report on 1.5℃, released in December 2018, presents the most up-to-date research on the science around the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement: to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global average temperature to below 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels.

Here we present an interactive version of figure SPM.1 in the Summary for Policymakers to help users understand how cumulative emissions of CO2 and other climate drivers determine the probability of limiting warming to 1.5℃.

Click and drag the blue dot to vary the year of net-zero CO2 emissions. Click and drag the purple dot to vary the global energy imbalance in 2100 due to other climate drivers, called the non-CO2 radiative forcing. Grey lines on the top panel show how the likely range of human-induced warming responds to those inputs using a simple climate model and the same methodology as the original figure.

SPM.1: Figure 1 of the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C.

a) Observed global temperature change and modeled responses to stylized anthropogenic emissions and forcing pathways

b) Stylized net global CO2 emissions

c) Cumulative net CO2 emissions

d) Non-CO2 radiative forcing

Year of net-zero:

2100 non-CO2 RF: W/m2

For further information see: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

Interactive designed and produced by Stuart Jenkins and Myles Allen, Department of Physics and Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, with support from the UK Natural Environment Research Council.