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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by 201.153.19.149 (talk) at 13:51, 10 May 2009 (→Source of the virus). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

See also: Template talk:2009 swine flu outbreak table, File talk:H1N1 map.svg, Talk:2009 swine flu outbreak by country, and Talk:2009 swine flu outbreak timeline

Article name

Probable, Suspected Numbers

There has now been a death in Canada (Northern Alberta)

Somebody needs to change the color image to black for Canada.

Thanks. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 142.94.25.62 (talk) 14:39, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

It isn't confirmed yet. Until someone does confirm it, we have to leave it suspected. If the death is caused by the flu, we'll hear about it in a few days. 204.81.98.230 (talk) 15:50, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
A Canadian with swine flu died but it does not mean that her death was caused by swine flu. 206.47.141.21 (talk) 15:59, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Death now confirmed to be caused by the virus. First death in Canada confirmed [1] —Preceding unsigned comment added by Ericleb01 (talk • contribs) 23:46, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Norway

Norway has got two confirmed cases, according to the latest news. (http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n180474 and http://nrk.no/nyheter/1.6602215) —Preceding unsigned comment added by 81.166.72.98 (talk) 20:08, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Comparison chart

A chart I put together for some quick perspective and comparison. Feel free to revise or expand. --Wikiwatcher1 (talk) 01:42, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Chart of pandemics
Epidemics (avail. data) Year People infected Deaths Mortality % Death rate/10,000 Data sources
Spanish flu (worldwide est) 1918-19 500 million 50 million 10% 1000 CDC
Asian flu (U.S.) 1957 45 million 70,000 .16% 16
Hong Kong flu (U.S.) 1968-69 50 million 33,000 .07% 7
Avian flu (worldwide) 1990-today 421 257 61% 6100
SARS (worldwide) 2002-03 8,096 774 9.6% 960
General flu (U.S.) yearly average 50 million 36,000 .08% 8 CNN
Swine flu (worldwide) [confirmed deaths/confirmed infections] as of 01:17, 6 May 2009 (UTC) 1767 31 1.8% 180 WHO

I like this alot. I think we should make a historical context section and place it after the introduction. It would go over previous pandemics and outbreaks prior to this one. What does everyone think?--Hdstubbs (talk) 03:16, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I put it in with Pandemic concern section. If someone wants to write some text to put it in better context that would be lovely. --Pontificalibus (talk) 10:05, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Many people compare it to 1918 pandemic of H1N1 variant. H comes from hemagluttenin and N comes from neuroaminidase (sp?). I BLASTed most recent HA and NA sequences against their 1918 counterparts from 3 strains mentioned in flu database at NCBI. Neuroaminidase has 83% nucleotide sequence identity and hemogluttenin has 81% to their counterparts. That is pretty low. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 83.174.217.67 (talk) 03:30, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

It is pointless having both "Mortality %" and "Death rate/1,000". One should be dropped but I'm not sure which one. Nurg (talk) 11:06, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
It may seem pointless, seeing as the numbers are extremely similar, and they say basically the same thing. But keep in mind, we're not just writing for educated, or even semi-educated people. We're writing for everyone, and the 30yr old man from South Africa with a 2nd grade education won't understand percentages. (Not being racist, just an example. And yes, I know the odds of my example even seeing the page, but it was an example.)Drew Smith 11:18, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
I beg to differ. In the English Wikipedia we are writing for people with reasonable literacy and numeracy skills. In the Simple English Wikipedia we write for the man with a 2nd grade education. Nurg (talk) 11:51, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
What about having just Death Rate %? --Pontificalibus (talk) 11:27, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Meh, good point. But that still doesnt mean everyone is good with math.Drew Smith 12:03, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Wikipedia doesn't ban the use of numbers on account of the fact that some people are innumerate. --Pontificalibus (talk) 12:07, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
I removed the last column and renamed Mortality % as Death Rate % -- Pontificalibus (talk) 12:10, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
I need to point out that you need references for all of the numbers in this table, and all conclusions about mortality. And the numbers for "Swine Flu" cannot reference a Wikipedia article as a source, otherwise you would violate WP:OR. I would think that a simple mortality calculation from a single source would be acceptable under WP:OR, however. Nice Table; I think it'd make a great contribution as long as sourced properly. Flipper9 (talk) 13:11, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

For the version modified and used in the article, there's a big problem I see. Since the available figures include worldwide or U.S. totals, the other columns makes less sense as a comparison tool unless there is some ratio column with it, such as % or /1,000. I added both here since there was plenty of room. Some people are used to seeing stats as a % (i.e. investors) and others like the per thousand (i.e. crime rates.) In fact, the reason I added "(avail. data)" was because I only found accurate data for that demographic, although other estimates may be still be available.

It would also be easy to add another column as a place to include one or more source links to avoid OR issues. --Wikiwatcher1 (talk) 18:37, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I went ahead and added a colum for sources to see how it might look. Note that the sources can easily be changed and other sources can be added, since the column will just expand to fit (but abbreviate the source name if possible.) --Wikiwatcher1 (talk) 18:45, 4 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

This analysis seems to be a case of synthesis, with numerators and denominators from different sources. There is little accuracy or consistency in the number of "cases" since only the most ill come to be included. Mild cases resolve at home with chicken soup and no medical attention. The fatality rates for some varieties are absurd original rsearch. Edison (talk) 02:16, 5 May 2009 (UTC) Edison (talk) 02:16, 5 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

All of the figures have come from verifiable sources and there was no mixing of sources in doing stats. I'll work on adding these to the new column. The only question I have is whether we should include non-influenza pandemics. If so, then polio and SARS would stay, and we should add some others, like smallpox, another viral disease. If the chart ends up including most pandemics of all sorts we might want to add it to the Pandemics article. --Wikiwatcher1 (talk) 04:02, 5 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Wikipedia:OR#Routine_calculations: "Routine calculations: This policy does not forbid routine calculations, such as adding numbers, converting units, or calculating a person's age, provided editors agree that the arithmetic and its application correctly reflect the information published by the sources from which it is derived."
Division is less simple than addition, but is still taught at primary school level in most countries AFAIK. So if there are sources either for the numerator and denominator (the two things to be divided) separately, or else for the result of the division, and if we wikipedian editors can agree on the result of the division in the former case, then either should be acceptable according to WP:OR, i.e. this is not considered an original "synthesis". Boud (talk) 00:13, 6 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Edison, your removal of Polio from the article chart gives more importance to the questions above. Especially since Polio is a viral infection which was transmitted in a similar way to influenza. But Bubonic plague, which you cited as comparably irrelevant, was a bacterial infection transmitted by flea bites. In any case, SARS is listed, which was not an influenza, so the editors should decide what the chart is for: i.e. influenza pandemics, virus pandemics, or all pandemics. --Wikiwatcher1 (talk) 04:53, 5 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
If we can define what the criteria for the table are, we can determine if polio belongs. Edison (talk) 23:29, 5 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I think the basic consept of the chart is very good given resent events.--86.29.255.77 (talk) 08:46, 5 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Data sources

Going over some sources, the total infected numbers were apparently arrived at by taking a percentage estimate of the population, U.S. or world. That's why the three in the chart are around 50 million for the U.S. But there is no confirmed number of cases since most people don't report their flu. However, the total deaths were consistent among all sources. The one I'd recommend looking at is Globalsecurity.org which also has a ton of other useful material, including the current outbreak. In any case, we need to consider whether the mortality rates are accurate enough to put on a chart like this, especially in an encyclopedia. I personally don't think so. It's probably best to just include confirmed totals. And it's true that since the current outbreak is not officially a "pandemic," some footnote should be added. We could even add the 1976 Swine flu "scare," since it never became a pandemic but is of historical mention due to the 40 million vaccinations.

A modified chart without absolute figures. Feel free to modify it for other ideas. --Wikiwatcher1 (talk) 02:38, 6 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Chart of pandemics
Epidemics (avail. data) Year People infected Deaths Mortality rate Data sources
Spanish flu (worldwide est) 1918-19 500 million 50 million CDC
Asian flu (U.S.) 1957 45 million 70,000 Globalsecurity.org
Hong Kong flu (U.S.) 1968-69 50 million 33,000 Globalsecurity.org
Avian flu (worldwide) 1990-today 421 257 Globalsecurity.org
Seasonal flu (U.S.) yearly average 50 million 36,000 .08% CNN
Swine flu (worldwide) [confirmed deaths/confirmed infections][1] as of 22:02, 6 May 2009 (UTC) 1893 31 1.6%[1] WHO

I really like the table but I think the death rate section is inaccurate. We should only use this information if it comes from a research or health care professional. I think it is WAY too early to tell what the death rate is and 1.8% is very high. That is twice the mortality rate of ordinary influenza and there is no evidence of that. --Hdstubbs (talk) 03:04, 6 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Agreed, even though we can all do math, on something as important as mortality rate we should source that figure, based on its scaryness and the likely underreporting of minor infections at this time.--PigFlu Oink (talk) 05:21, 6 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
We already have a table that does identical math to show world-wide confirmed infections, probable infections, possible infections, probable deaths, and confirmed deaths that is just as scary. Why not this one as well? Flipper9 (talk) 12:06, 6 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
i don't understand the sentences " I think it is WAY too early to tell what the death rate is and 1.8% is very high. That is twice the mortality rate of ordinary influenza and there is no evidence of that.". Are we talking about our Planet or about rich countries?
See the subsection "Uncertainties on the mortality/ death rate - sanity check" above. The Poisson error on deaths in the USA alone would make the uncertainty vey big: 2/831 +- (2/831)/sqrt(2) = 0.24% +- 0.17%, which really just means somewhere around 0.0% to 0.5%. If we include all the rich countries, this would be 0.0% to maybe 0.4% (i haven't calculated it.). If we wanted a separate figure for rich countries, then the Poisson error alone would make it unreasonable to put anything other than an upper limit.
However, en.wikipedia.org is not the USA/UK/Canada/Australia/NZ wikipedia. It's about worldwide knowledge, and that's what is claimed above anyway. The reality of medical services and typical health conditions of "healthy" people in most places in the world is that the same virus will kill off people in some (generally poorer) places at higher rates than others. 1.8% is very high, but it might be the reality for poorer countries. All the present numbers of different sorts in our summary table seem to agree within the roughly 0.3% Poisson error, despite the quite different biases (conservative vs vague):
  • WHO confirmed/confirmed: 31/1893 = 1.6%
  • "total" confirmed/confirmed: 44/2267 = 1.9%
  • "total" (confirmed + suspected deaths)/(confirmed + probable + suspected): (44+100)/(2267+835+4100) = 2.0%
All agree with the previous estimate of 1.8% +- 0.3%. None of these are dropping down to e.g. 0.1% or lower.
i've added some stuff to the caveat in the table, though i'm sure it could be improved. Feel free to NPOV or source the caveats, but since they are mostly saying what we are not saying, probably they only need sourcing for people wondering what some examples are of what to be careful about in interpreting the value. Boud (talk) 21:59, 6 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
No, I mean worldwide. No medical researchers are coming out and saying that this is the mortality rate because they are obviously missing a lot of cases - these are only laboratory confirmed cases not suspected cases or mild cases. Giving what we don't know about the virus we can't make estimations about the death rate. We should only put a mortality rate up there when we have a medical source that has researched this and made that decision. --Hdstubbs (talk) 07:09, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Actually, i think i do see the interest of comparing to "seasonal flu", even though that's getting close to OR unless we have some serious sources. BTW, our table presently says that 2009/A/influenza/H1N1 is about 20 times deadlier (on average) than seasonal flu. If someone finds a decent reference showing independently e.g. in USA and Mexico what the relative death rates are for the seasonal flu vs 2009/A/influenza/H1N1, then that could be reasonably added in the caveat section. Boud (talk) 22:07, 6 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
I looked at the source cited [2] but this is not a case-fatality rate. Calculating the number of known deaths / known cases offers many errors, positive and negative (missed mild cases and cases not yet progressed to death, for example). Calculating case fatality rates by simple division is definitely against Wikipedia "original research" policy. Mike Serfas (talk) 05:36, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Other discussions

Should suspect cases (sub)column be dropped from main table?

Are we at the point where the suspected cases column is being meaningless? Should it be dropped?

Please see discussion at table page and comment. — Preceding unsigned comment added by ThaddeusB (talk • contribs)

Source of the virus

I have put an NPOV tag on the section re source of the virus. It is WP:SYNTHESIS at its worst. Also, the quality of sources is very poor. What happened to the original, reliable sources? This section now functions as a link farm for blogs. --Una Smith (talk) 18:12, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I'll try to clean it up a bit. hmwithτ 18:33, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
What are your main concerns? I'm not sure what sources used to be there. You can try looking through the article's history. If they are better sources, feel free to add back, per WP:BRD. hmwithτ 18:39, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
For one the last sentance ', possibly due to the intensive farming carried out to maximize profits.' Cries POV. The sources used seem to wage war on evil mega meat corporations, however their evidence is collecitve non-scientific theories, unoffical reports, and dissimilar unconnected incidents wrapped together like a giant rubberband ball --PigFlu Oink (talk) 18:57, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Indeed, although I'm a long-term reader of The Guardian, I would still hesitate to use an opinion essay from this newspaper as a source of facts about viral evolution. The source of this H1N1 strain is not known, and considering that the first case was identified in California, the speculations about one particular farm in Mexico are stretched very thin. Tim Vickers (talk) 19:53, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
I've taken a crack at balancing. Still have my doubts about some of the animal welfare activism sources from the UK...LeadSongDog come howl 20:07, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Note in particular that, whatever you think about its applicability as a source, that Guardian opinion piece does not state that the current H1N1 strain is related to the strain that emerged in North Carolina, it states: "Since its identification during the Great Depression, H1N1 swine flu had only drifted slightly from its original genome. Then in 1998 a highly pathogenic strain began to decimate sows on a farm in North Carolina and new, more virulent versions began to appear almost yearly, including a variant of H1N1 that contained the internal genes of H3N2 (the other type-A flu circulating among humans)." The link between these facts and the origins of the current strain is never made clear in this piece, so interpreting this as a statement on the origin of the current strain is unsupportable. Tim Vickers (talk) 20:14, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
I've added a summary of a news article in Nature, which gives a useful perspective and is an unimpeachably reliable source on scientific topics. Tim Vickers (talk) 20:26, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
The information on viral origins in this Nature article is in box 1 ('The turbulent history of the A(H1N1) virus'), which in the on-line version is linked in the second paragraph. Tim Vickers (talk) 22:04, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Whew, what a string of edit conflicts. Looks much better now, though. Is the Caroline Lucas piece a RS? As a Green MEP, antiglobalist, and RSPCA advocate she just might have an agenda.LeadSongDog come howl 22:00, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Hello, I am fluent in Spanish language and I am a cell & molecular biologist. Ignoring the fact that La Jornada is an alarmist newspaper - one notch above tabloid. The quoted report by La Jornada is trash at its best. Some facts:
La Jornada quotes one La Gloria municipal town clerk who blames the outbreak on the farm and on flies. This clerk is no scientist and made the unofficial statement BEFORE the actual testing.
a) Not one pig in that farm, or in Mexico for that matter, has tested positive for H1N1.
b) Canadian and Mexican government scientists found no infected swine.
c) The American farm operator found no infected swine at the location.
d) La Jornada's article states that the vector (spreading) of influenza A are the flies, which is ferociously false and is a sTOopid baseless speculation.
e) The second reference (The Guardian) is only quoting La Jornada, so it is also useles. Besides, its title is not a news, nor a statement but an editorial question: Swine flu: is intensive pig farming to blame?
f) The source of the outbreak has not been identified.
g) Not because the "news" was published in La Jornada, it has to be quoted. Let me remind you, per WP:V "each fact presented by an article must be concretely verifiable, at the editor's discretion it is possible and appropriate to include as many proper and correct citations as desired to affirm the statements made. [...] And whether a citation is added in a required context or at an editor's discretion it must be accurate and should comply with the rules set forth in this guideline." Since the article is definitevly not accurate and is demonstrably based on unscientific speculation, any claim supported by it must be deleted at once. I don't think we do any service to Wikipedia by listing the fringe theories around this outbreak. Cheers, BatteryIncluded (talk) 22:39, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
The town clerk detail is one worth capturing. While nobody serious would still think the farm was to blame, the reports were widely repeated and contributed to the anti-pork reaction. It might be appropriate to move some of this down to the Media section. For clarity, the Guardian article BI mentions is the same one authored by Caroline Lucas.LeadSongDog come howl 22:57, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
It might still belong in the article, since this speculation has been picked up by the international media. I've reworded the section to match more accurately what you have said about this source. Tim Vickers (talk) 22:58, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
I am also fluent in Spanish (I live in Mexico) and I fully agree with you what you say, BatteryIncluded. I prefer this part to be removed because it is just misleading. It is already sufficient that the media published that misleading information all over and caused more panic than necessary (see eating pork etc.). The same happened with the so-called "patient zero" who was obviously not the origin of the outbreak (at least not worldwide). Those facts can appear in the media section to recall people who read the article how things were published at the time. However, for an informative article what the influenza is really about it is just confusing and misleading. I fully agree!--201.153.19.149 (talk) 13:51, 10 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]



I agree with with TimVickers' LeadSongDog's observation and edits. Cheers. BatteryIncluded (talk) 23:34, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

This section is now much better. --Una Smith (talk) 14:13, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I was tempted to oppose this section last week, because it does seem a little absurd - but it is important not to jump to conclusions. See Kyoto Sawabe, Keita Hoshino, Haruhiko Isawa, Toshinori Sasaki, Toshihiko Hayashi, Yoshio Tsuda, Hiromu Kurahashi, Kiyoshi Tanabayashi, Akitoyo Hotta, Takehiko Saito, Akio Yamada, and Mutsuo Kobayashi (2006). "Detection and isolation of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza A viruses from blow flies collected in the vicinity of an infected poultry farm in Kyoto, Japan 2004". Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 75 (2): 327–332.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link).
According to the original reference,[3] the fly hypothesis was advanced by "Bertha Crisóstomo López, agente municipal del poblado". Wikipedia has no article on municipal agents in Mexico and I'd like to see more about them, but so far I infer that they seem to be something like a mayor appointed by the central government - an authority figure, in any case, who might be reporting someone else's work.
Whether or not direct transmission by flies makes any sense, I think that there is an indirect argument to be considered. A pig farm which is exceptionally smelly and generates flies may generally fall short of industry standards, and hence less likely to vaccinate, diagnose, or treat pig flu which then might spread via the workers in a more conventional way.
I asked a question earlier ([4]) regarding satellite photos of farms nearer to 'Patient Zero', as Perote is actually quite some distance away from La Gloria where the initial outbreak might have occurred. Mike Serfas (talk) 16:21, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Hello, it is true we are not reviewers, however, a town clerk's POV before any testing, does not deserve to be highlighted over the massive amount of scientific reports stating otherwise. We do have a responsibility here for accuracy, and the scientists from at least 3 countries (USA, Mexico & Canada) in charge, have declared that they have not found the origin/source, and that certainly it was not La Gloria pig farm. Thank you for the very interesting paper you cite. I am glad to learn this and i trully find it wonderful. Indeed, domestic flies have been found to carry the virus in their outer body and gastrointestinal tract. They are capable of mechanical transport of the flu virus. However, I also noticed 1) the researchers did not venture to call this find a "vector", 2)virus survival in/on the flies is still unknown, and 3) no evidence was found that the contaminated flies infected any organisms. 4) I believe that mecanical contamination does not imply spreading the virus and causing active infections on any third organism. For all practical and scientific purposes, La Gloria location and swine tested negative for the virus. On the other hand, the nespaper report did seem to have caused some intense reactions, so it was moved to the 'Spread within Mexico' section. Again, thank you for the very interesting Japanese article. Cheers, BatteryIncluded (talk) 22:34, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Condensing the lead

The lead is currently seven paragraphs and Wiki recommends no more than four. I took the first three, which seemed like they could be condensed, and rewrote them as one for sandboxing, (new verb?) below. Note that for easier editing, I trimmed out the citations and some wikilinks so it's easier to sandbox.

Existing:

The 2009 outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) virus is an epidemic of a new strain of influenza virus that was clinically identified in April 2009,[35] and is commonly referred to as swine flu.[36] It is currently a Phase 5 outbreak, one level below an official pandemic.
Although the exact origin of the outbreak is unknown, it was first detected when officials in Mexico and the United States suspected a link between an outbreak of late-season flu cases in Mexico and cases of influenza in Texas and California.[37] Within days, hundreds more suspected cases were discovered in Mexico, with more cases also showing up in the U.S. and several other countries.
By late April, officials from the U.N.'s World Health Organization (WHO), based in Switzerland, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the U.S., were expressing serious concern about the flu outbreak, worried that it might become a worldwide flu pandemic.[38] As a result, WHO raised its alert level to "Phase 5" out of 6 possible, which it defines as a "signal that a pandemic is imminent".[39]

Condensed:

The 2009 outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) virus is an epidemic of a new strain of influenza virus identified in April 2009, and is commonly referred to as swine flu. The source of the outbreak in humans is still unknown, but cases were first discovered in Mexico, and U.S. officials soon suspected a link between this and an earlier outbreak of late-season flu cases in Texas and California. Within days, hundreds more suspected cases, many resulting in death, were discovered in Mexico, with more cases found in the U.S. and several other countries. Soon after, the U.N.'s World Health Organization (WHO), along with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), became concerned that it could become a worldwide flu pandemic, and WHO then raised its pandemic alert level to "Phase 5" out of 6 maximum, as "signal that a pandemic is imminent".[2]

I think we can trim other lead paragraphs also but offer this one for comments. --Wikiwatcher1 (talk) 18:51, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I like your suggested change a lot, it's far better prose. Well condensed. ~ mazca t|c 18:59, 7 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
I just condensed the lead to four paragraphs and added a note requesting that editors to not make the lead longer than four paragraphs. This is the third time I've shortened it. I didn't do much in the way of editing, though. I just moved the paragraphs together. Wikiwatcher, your paragraph is really good and I suggest adding it to the lead. --Hdstubbs (talk) 07:30, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Article needs section on predictions regarding likely course of the virus

What readers are really interested in is current and predicted contagiousness, spread, lethality, and morbidity —Preceding unsigned comment added by 66.167.95.139 (talk) 01:23, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

We should try to limit predictions per WP:CRYSTAL, in my opinion. –Juliancolton | Talk 01:39, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Just saw this prediction by the WHO:
"With the current total population of more than 6 billion, that would mean an infection total of 2 billion, he said, but added that the world has changed since pandemics of earlier generations, and experts are unable to predict if the impact will be greater or smaller. We don't really know." said Fukuda. "This is a benchmark from the past. Please do not interpret this as a prediction for the future." "WHO: Up to 2 billion people might get swine flu" --Wikiwatcher1 (talk) 01:47, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Julian, I think including widely reported predictions is perfectly fine, as wp:crystal discourages us from including unverifiable predictions. Including notable, verifiable, and widely sourced predictions is a part of our job, no?   user:j    (aka justen)   09:24, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
I resist the notion of including educated guesses predictions, even from a distinguished researcher. BatteryIncluded (talk) 03:19, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Extra-terrestrials ?

While searching for sources for the Historical context section, I found this information through pubmed:

The epidemic behaviour of influenza has been so erratic and difficult to understand that there are still a few scientists who consider that extraterrestrial influences operate. These views are not taken seriously by most virologists but there are puzzling aspects of influenza that are not yet understood.

— Beveridge, W.I. (1991). "The chronicle of influenza epidemics". History and Philosophy of the life sciences. 13 (2): 223–34.

Should we add this critical content to our article ? :) Abecedare (talk) 02:09, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

God no. Nutjobs. ViridaeTalk 02:40, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Of course not, I trust you are joking! Tim Vickers (talk) 02:41, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
I don't see why you are so dismissive. It seems to be true that some virologists have such theories. To clarify - they aren't suggesting that viruses are being sent down by little green men, they are saying that some viruses might enter the atmosphere from space. It seems an unlikely theory, but it is harsh to describe its adherents as nut jobs. I would be against mentioning it in this article, though. Possibly it might have a place in Influenza. GrahamN (talk) 02:52, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Once again, no. I'm dismissive of this idea for the excellent reason that I have been reading the literature on influenza intensively over the last two weeks, to refresh my memory after bringing influenza to FA in 2006. This idea is not part of the literature on this topic, it is simply nonsense. Tim Vickers (talk) 02:57, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Yes I was kidding; thought other editors might enjoy the diversion.
To be clear: I don't hink this belongs in any of the Influenza related articles; the fringiness can be covered adequately at the pages of its proponents Fred Hoyle, Chandra Wickramasinghe or perhaps at panspermia. Abecedare (talk) 03:04, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Agree. But it has the makings of a great movie script, a la Jonas Salk story. Tom Cruise in a lab coat? --Wikiwatcher1 (talk) 03:08, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Good choice. Cruise's sofa-jumping wide-eyed crazyness and and the idea of influenza by panspermia seem excellent companions for each other. Tim Vickers (talk) 03:11, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Not only Influenza; SARS too! Abecedare (talk) 03:26, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
It is harsh to dismiss the panspermia theory out of hand as "simply nonsense". I don't buy it, personally, but there really are a few serious scientists who do. Fred Hoyle used to be keen on the idea, and it persists. Look at these articles and letters in The Lancet, for example. GrahamN (talk) 03:29, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Panspermia is offered by some legitimate scientists as a hypothesis that explains almost every open question about life on earth. Except it explains nothing: it simply moves those questions outside the scope of terrestrial biology, into astrobiology, in the same manner as intelligent design moves those questions outside the scope of science. --Una Smith (talk) 14:22, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

It is posible that it was a anilen virouse.--86.29.243.170 (talk) 09:25, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

No its not possible, aliens may exist, but there is no such thing as a "virouse". --PigFlu Oink (talk) 09:28, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Defining terms

On the other hand, depending on how you define "extra-terrestrial" agents, we can also note that they're already here. We've got cosmic rays, X-rays, gamma rays, uv rays, ozone holes, etc. which cause mutations, cancers, and a host of evolutionary unknowns. The sun is probably a key extra-terrestrial agent of change. But as Louis Brandeis said, sunlight is also the best medicine. Take your pick. --Wikiwatcher1 (talk) 03:48, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Logarithmic chart

Reported laboratory confirmed H1N1 influenza cases.[3]

I also made a logarithmic chart, it shows better the numbers in the first days. But I think if we place it into the article, it's too much. Any ideas? -- Grochim (talk) 09:02, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

  1. ^ a b Raw value of worldwide number of "confirmed" deaths divided by the worldwide number of "confirmed" infections given presently available data. No corrections (e.g. for previous health status, socio-economic conditions, selection biases such as infected people not being reported to the medical system, etc.) have been applied.
  2. ^ Cite error: The named reference WHO_level5 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  3. ^ "Situation updates - Influenza A(H1N1)". WHO. Retrieved 2009-05-08.
Support - replace existing. -- John (Daytona2 · Talk · Contribs) 14:18, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Red XN I like it but it probably fails the layman test, in that 98% of the people wouldn't understand a logarithm if it fell on their head. It will also fail WP:OR as no similar chart or summary of growth has been published by a recognized authority so your summary could be argued to be original particularly as it goes beyond simple addition. PS could you get rid of the extra "0:00" on the date axis?—Teahot (talk) 15:55, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Yes I will try, but give me a little time. -- Grochim (talk) 17:08, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
I don't think it counts as original research - it is just presenting the same information in a different, useful, way. However I don't think it should replace the chart that is there at the moment. If it is possible to do this, I think the best idea would be to put it just beneath the existing chart, but hidden in one of those things where you have to click on them to open them up. (What are those things called, by the way?) GrahamN (talk) 17:58, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Collapsed tables, they work by setting the class to "wikitable collapsible" or similar (you can also use template:hidden begin to do the same sort of thing by hiding text).—Teahot (talk) 18:12, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
 Done ... It's included in the table template now. -- Grochim (talk) 11:51, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

The vertical axes need labeling. Somebody's going to come along and get freaked out that the disease is 90% fatal. In fact, putting the deaths on the same chart with a different scale may be a bad idea entirely. -- Cyrius|✎ 20:30, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Yes I'm not really satisfied with this solution, too. However, the deaths are important and I can't make thousands of charts. I will downscale the axis a bit. -- Grochim (talk) 10:51, 10 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Why isn't Argenina in red yet?

There is a confirmed case. --190.49.117.246 (talk) 14:30, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

No one cries for Argentina. --PigFlu Oink (talk) 18:49, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Unsorted discussions

Map Issues

1.) Color - I think that black is not a good color for confirmed deaths. Especially now that Canada is likely to have confirmed death soon this means that the entirety of North America is black for less fifty deaths. Maybe I've played too much Pandemic II but I think this is a little over the top. My suggestion is red = death, green = confirmed, and yellow = suspected

2.) Territories - Should territories be colored even if there are no cases there? Ex: Alaska, French Guiana, etc. --Hdstubbs (talk) 16:45, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Note To keep colors similar on all the swine flu maps, I'm going to ask you achieve a wide-consensus before being bold (perhaps a link to this conversation on the other talk pages) --PigFlu Oink (talk) 18:52, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Can you post a legend of what red, green, yellow you are going to use? And Alaska isn't a territory, for better or for worse, its a full and equal part of these United States. --PigFlu Oink (talk) 18:53, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Agreed. I don't want to do anything without consensus. Also, I don't know how to make the maps. I think I don't have the program needed to edit them. I tried once and couldn't do it. It's not a huge thing but I just kept seeing these same issues brought both here and on the map talk pages so I thought I'd see what the consensus was before I did anything about them. The issue seems to be that the maps would be hard to change. I would look up the translations for the colors but I am not that great with computers to make the maps myself. --Hdstubbs (talk) 18:57, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Wikipedia:Manual of Style (diagrams and maps)#Colors in maps --PigFlu Oink (talk) 19:08, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
  • The "exclaves" issue has been gone over several times in the archives, without change. For one reason, the .svg file is essentially a text file in which the two letter country codes are used to control which country receives which color, and that would need to change to create this change. More to the point, the official sources don't generally break down cases within nations or states, making it difficult for future editors to maintain the file.
  • The color scheme is admittedly arbitrary. When I painted a third color, black seemed appropriate.[5] But I really don't like the yellow -> green -> red procession suggested, because it is not sequential in terms of hue or brightness.
  • I expected that additional colors might be added to the map over time. Initially I had hoped remotely that perhaps a shade of blue might mark countries in which the virus had been contained. Now I think perhaps a shade of green might eventually mark countries that begin mass vaccinations. Using a fourth shade to mark large numbers of confirmed deaths is problematic, because if the outbreak spreads further I think many countries will not prove conclusively by genomic sequencing that each new death is due to swine flu. Only a handful of cases may ever be confirmed to this standard, and for some countries we may need to rely on sources to infer a "confirmation" in the absence of data. So I think that for a threshold of more than one, we will need to use suspected or estimated deaths, not confirmed.
  • If this disease continues to spread we may desire a second, independent map which uses different colors to express the numbers of deaths as a fraction of population. Probably a source will come along for us to base this on just as it becomes appropriate. Mike Serfas (talk) 00:28, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
  • The present colors seem fine. Keep it simple. One useful thing with a map like this is to follow the progress by seeing the successive maps day by day. That seems to be sort of possible by going to the file history for the map, but it is not convenient. Edison (talk) 03:35, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Laboratory confirmed cases

The WHO reports just an hour or so 896 confirmed cases for the United States. However, in the table we are already counting 1,714 cases. I mean.. this is nearly 100 percent in difference. Why is the WHO so slow? Or do we have mistakes? -- Grochim (talk) 18:38, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

WHO is slow because they are WHO. The CDC is the authority for disease control in the United States has counted (as of May 8th): 1639. That number is the aggregated total of all state reported cases. Some states have since updated their totals to now 1740. All confirmed cases are sourced with state health agencies Template:2009 US swine flu outbreak table --PigFlu Oink (talk) 18:45, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
It takes time for the numbers to be filtered, verified, and submitted by all of the various countries to the WHO. They will differ depending on how often each country sends updates, and may even go up or down sightly as mistakes are corrected on all sides. Flipper9 (talk) 18:54, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Yes they are slow. Well I asked because of the chart. However, I won't mix different sources in one chart, this is not a good idea. -- Grochim (talk) 05:16, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Congratulations

Congratulations to all the editors; in real life, I have received numerous compliments today about the quality and usefulness of this and related articles. Graham Colm Talk 21:42, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

We try. Perhaps we'll eventually get a mention in the New England Journal of Medicine re "informal media"!
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/NEJMp0904012
kencf0618 (talk) 23:22, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
'New England??' Its over 400 years old!!! --PigFlu Oink (talk) 23:23, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
For the first few days this article was so caotic I stayed away. You guys have done a good job. BatteryIncluded (talk) 02:34, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Brazil: Country has more two cases of the new flu, announces Minister

Country has more two cases of the new flu, announces Minister

7-year-old girl is of SC and it had rise. Another patient is a friend of young person interned in the Rio de Janeiro

In the total, 6 persons infected with the swine flu in Brazil.

Might anybody update for me there in the article?

Source: http://g1.globo.com/Sites/Especiais/Noticias/0,,MUL1114606-16726,00-MINISTRO+DA+SAUDE+CONFIRMA+DOIS+NOVOS+CASOS+DE+INFLUENZA+A+NO+PAIS.html

--Rodfanaia (talk) 23:59, 8 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Updated. GaussianCopula (talk) 03:17, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I've just heard allegedly an Azari waiter has died at Heydar Aliyev International Airport!

WHO total deaths 46

WHO totals 2500[2] N/A 44[2]

The ref says

Mexico has reported 1204 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 44 deaths. The United States has reported 896 laboratory confirmed human cases, including two deaths.

And the WHO map of deaths and cases says 2,500 and 46 deaths.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/GlobalSubnationalMaster_20090508_1815.jpg —Preceding unsigned comment added by 94.194.211.181 (talk) 01:01, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

New update by the WHO will be soon. The reference will be updated accordingly. http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/ GaussianCopula (talk) 03:22, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Oh the WHO is working weekends? I guess this really is a crisis... --PigFlu Oink (talk) 05:50, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

A death confirmed in Costa Rica and 7 more cases

Costa Rica confirmed its first swine flu related death (in Spanish) --Vrysxy ¡Californication! 17:36, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Age

Whereas most influenza strains affect the elderly and young children worst, this strain has primarily caused deaths in people aged 25–50.[158] -- is this statement, which refers to that outdated report, still considered valid? By the way, it looks like the original report is slightly misrepresented here. Colchicum (talk) 17:44, 9 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]


What is the sort order?

There is a table listing the number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths by country. If the U.S. has the most cases, why is Mexico listed first? What is the sort rule? It appears arbitrary. Edison (talk) 02:16, 10 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I suppose it is first, confirmed deaths, then for countries with no deaths, number of confirmed cases. Edison (talk) 02:19, 10 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
You are correct. --ThaddeusB (talk) 02:33, 10 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

WHO raising threat level to 6

The World Health Organization will be raising the threat level to 6 at noon tomorrow. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.137.110.9 (talk) 03:15, 10 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Source? Titoxd(?!? - cool stuff) 03:24, 10 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
There are sources that level 5 will be maintained:
  • "The WHO still has found no evidence of community transmission of the swine flu virus outside North America, which would trigger the move from a pandemic phase 5 to phase 6," Sylvie Briand, a WHO influenza expert, told reporters today. "Most new cases outside North America represent imported infections linked to travel or infections in travelers' close contacts." CIDRAP - May 8, 2009
  • The World Health Organization maintains pandemic alert of Phase 5. Pan America Health Organization - 9 May 2009 6:00 pm
-- Grochim (talk) 04:18, 10 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

1976!

It will blow over, just like this one did![6] --86.25.50.119 (talk) 10:21, 10 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Dr 86.25.50.119 has spoken. Can we cite him in the article? --PigFlu Oink (talk) 10:23, 10 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
LOL. -- Grochim (talk) 10:41, 10 May 2009 (UTC)[reply]
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