2020 New Zealand general election: Difference between revisions

2020 New Zealand general election

← 2017 On or before 21 November 2020
← outgoing members
All 120 seats (plus any overhang) in the House of Representatives 61 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Simon Bridges Jacinda Ardern Winston Peters Party National Labour NZ First Leader since 27 February 2018 1 August 2017 18 July 1993 (party foundation) Leader's seat Tauranga Mount Albert List Last election 56 seats, 44.45% 46 seats, 36.89% 9 seats, 7.20% Current seats 55 46 9 Seats needed 6 15 52   Leader James Shaw & Marama Davidson David Seymour Party Green ACT Leader since 30 May 2015 & 8 April 2018 4 October 2014 Leader's seat List Epsom Last election 8 seats, 6.27% 1 seat, 0.50% Current seats 8 1 Seats needed 53 60
Incumbent Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern Labour

The 2020 New Zealand general election will be held after the currently elected 52nd New Zealand Parliament is dissolved or expires. The current Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017. The last possible date for the next general election to be held is 21 November 2020.

Voters will elect 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 72 members are elected from single-member electorates and 48 members are elected from closed party lists.

After the previous election, the centre-left Labour Party, led by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, formed a minority coalition government with the New Zealand First party, with confidence and supply from the Green Party. The main opponent to the Labour–NZ First government is the centre-right National Party, led by Simon Bridges. The ACT Party is the sole other party in Parliament, represented by a single MP.

A referendum on personal cannabis consumption is planned to be held at the same time, along with a referendum on euthanasia held with the End of Life Choice Bill passing its third reading in parliament.^[1][2]

The final results of the 2017 election gave National 56 seats, while Labour and the Greens combined had 54 seats. New Zealand First won 9 seats, which put them in the position to give either National or Labour the 61 seats needed form a government. On 19 October 2017, Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, announced that he would form a coalition government with Labour.^[3] On the same day, James Shaw, leader of the Green Party, announced that his party would give confidence and supply to a Labour–NZ First government.^[4] The result of the election saw the Labour Party regain power after nine years in opposition, as well as the end of the Fifth National Government which had been in power for three terms (2008–2017). The 2017 election also saw the first party under MMP in New Zealand to lead a government without commanding the plurality of the party vote.

Template:52nd New Zealand Parliament

• ^Coa New Zealand First announced a coalition agreement with the Labour Party on 19 October 2017.
• ^CS The Green Party entered into a confidence and supply agreement with the Labour Party on the same day as the coalition was announced.

• ^Ind1 National MP Jami-Lee Ross was expelled from the party in October 2018 after an alleged leak of party documents and a public spat with party leader Simon Bridges. He has continued to represent his electorate as an independent MP.

New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 48 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.

The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, no party has won enough votes to win an outright majority of seats. As a result, parties must negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.

Electorate boundaries for the next election are set to be redrawn due to the 2018 census, so this general election will be the first to use boundaries based on the 2018 census.

The number of South Island general electorates is fixed at 16,^[5] with the number of North Island general electorates and Māori electorates increasing or decreasing in proportion. Each electorate must have the same population, with a tolerance of plus or minus five percent. For the 2014 and 2017 elections, there were 48 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates, giving a total of 71 electorates.

On 23 September 2019, Statistics New Zealand announced that there would be one additional North Island general electorate, bringing the total number of North Island general electorates to 49 and the overall number of electorates to 72.^[6] It also announced that 11 North Island, three South Island, and two Māori electorates were above tolerance, while five South Island electorates and one Māori electorate were below tolerance.^[7]

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The most recent election was held on 23 September 2017.

The governor-general must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current parliament. Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2017 election were returned on 12 October 2017. As a result, the 52nd Parliament must dissolve no later than 12 October 2020. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election is 19 October 2020. The writs must be returned within 50 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount or death of a candidate), which will be 7 December 2020.^[8] Because polling day must be on a Saturday,^[8] and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date for the next general election is 21 November 2020.

The previous two general elections (2014 and 2017) were both held on the second-to-last Saturday in September. If this trend were to continue, the next election would be held on 19 September 2020.

Political parties registered with the Electoral Commission can contest the general election as a party. To register, parties must have at least 500 financial members, an auditor, and an appropriate party name.^[9] A registered party may submit a party list to contest the party vote, and can have a party campaign expenses limit in addition to limits on individual candidates' campaigns. Unregistered parties and independents can contest the electorate vote only.

Since the 2017 general election, three parties have formally been de-registered. On 14 November 2017, United Future leader Damian Light announced that his party would be dissolved, and thus not contest any future elections.^[10] The Ban 1080 Party was deregistered on 28 February 2018 at the party's request.^[11] The Internet Party was deregistered on 12 June 2018 because its membership had dropped below the 500 required for registration.^[12]

The Opportunities Party announced on 9 July 2018 that the party was to be deregistered following its board's decision to not contest any future elections.^[13] The decision was reverted on 20 August 2018 reportedly due to an influx of supporters asking the party to continue.^[14]

As of 4 December 2019^[update], the following parties are registered to contest the general election:^[15]

• Paula Bennett (National) announced in August 2019 that she would retire as the electorate MP for Upper Harbour and instead stand as a list-only MP.^[24]

• Anne Tolley (National) announced in December 2019 that she would retire as the electorate MP for East Coast and instead stand as a list-only MP with the intention of becoming Speaker of the House.^[25]

During the three-month regulated period prior to election day, parties and candidates have limits on how much they may spend on election campaigning. It is illegal in New Zealand to campaign on election day itself.^[26]

The limits on electoral expenses are updated on every year to reflect inflation. For the 2019/20 year, every registered party contending the party vote is permitted to spend $1,169,000 plus $27,500 per electorate candidate on election campaigning during the regulated period, excluding radio and television campaigning (broadcasting funding is allocated separately). A party contesting all 72 electorates is therefore permitted to spend $3,149,000 on election campaigning.^[27] All electorate candidates are permitted to spend $27,500 each on campaigning over and above their party's allocation.^[28]

Registered parties are allocated a separate broadcasting budget for radio and television campaigning. Only money from the broadcasting allocation can be used to purchase airtime; the actual production costs of advertisements can come from the general election expenses budget. The Electoral Commission sets the amount of broadcasting funds each party gets; generally the allocation is based on the number of seats in the current Parliament, previous election results, and support in opinion polls.

Third party promoters, such as trade unions and lobby groups, can campaign during the regulated period. The maximum expense limit for the 2019/20 year is $330,000 for those promoters registered with the Electoral Commission,^[29] and $13,200 for unregistered promoters.^[30]

Various organisations have commissioned opinion polling for the next general election. Two main polling organisations are currently regularly sampling the electorates' opinions: Reid Research (on behalf of MediaWorks New Zealand) and Colmar Brunton (on behalf of Television New Zealand). Roy Morgan Research released their last opinion poll in November 2017.

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections assume the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National^[31] and that Botany will be returned to National,^[32][33] but otherwise assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.^[34]