Artwork: Millo, 2014, B.ART-Arte in Barriera, Turin, Italy
Summary.
When making decisions, we all rely too heavily on intuition and use flawed reasoning sometimes. But it’s possible to fight these pernicious sources of bias by learning to spot them and using the techniques presented in this article, gleaned from the latest research. They’ll open up your thinking about possible outcomes, objectives, and options and lead to better choices. To broaden your perspective on the future, the authors suggest, you can use proven tactics for improving the accuracy of estimates and preparing for contingencies. You’ll think more expansively about your objectives if you come up with many possibilities before deciding what’s most important, get input from others, and then carefully examine one goal at a time. And you’ll generate better options if you identify several and evaluate them side by side. Don’t settle for the first one that’s acceptable; imagine that you can’t pursue it, and you might find an even stronger alternative. Strong emotional attachments or investments make cognitive biases even harder to overcome. When that’s the case, use checklists and algorithms to stay focused on the right things, and set “trip wires” to trigger planned responses at key points in the decision-making process. HBR Reprint R1505D
Suppose you’re evaluating a job candidate to lead a new office in a different country. On paper this is by far the most qualified person you’ve seen. Her responses to your interview questions are flawless. She has impeccable social skills. Still, something doesn’t feel right. You can’t put your finger on what—you just have a sense. How do you decide whether to hire her?